{ "artifact_id": "RPM-SURVIVOR-S51E04-PHASE2-v0.1", "task_id": "RPM-TASK-20261016-216", "created_at": "2026-10-16T18:47:53+00:00", "phase": "2 — Analysis", "status": "CHECKED_ANALYSIS_WITH_EXPLICIT_LIMITS", "authority": "James: execute next phase, after completed Episode 4 Phase 1", "input_phase1_manifest": "../survivor-s51e04-phase1-v01/RPM_Survivor_S51E04_Phase1_Package_v0_1.manifest.json", "input_phase1_aggregate": "087d9b45f746aa9bdae29f7df5d0816dd27ce259292354d2434ddc116182f731", "evidence_cutoff_unchanged": "2026-10-16T17:42:26+00:00", "evidence_waves": [ { "id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "boundary": "Released Episode 4 words/actions and bounded formal reporting; no interview hindsight" }, { "id": "EW-S51E04-JENNA-POSTGAME-v01", "boundary": "Jenna October 15 interviews; one participant perspective across two outlets" } ], "mode": "TEXTUAL_EPISODE_RECORD", "calibration": "QUALITATIVE_UNCALIBRATED", "scoring": "GOVERNED_SCORING_DISABLED", "new_game_sources": [], "answer": { "question": "Why did Jenna try to rebuild with Devin and Jelly after they had already voted against her?", "origin": "EXPLICITLY_EVIDENCE_DERIVED_PHASE_1_QUESTION", "episode_answer": "Jenna saw a usable three-person voting plan and hoped the swap could align games that had previously conflicted. She doubted Alexis’s effort to split them, relayed the warning and tried to turn that disclosure into a vote against Alexis. The episode also shows her questioning whether Devin/Jelly could be trusted; it does not support blind certainty. Ori’s cross-tribe relationships made the apparent old-Toka majority unreliable, and his stated target choice plus Jelly’s concern about harming that alliance help explain why Jenna’s repair attempt did not protect her.", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-026", "EVD-S51E04-033", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-035", "EVD-S51E04-036", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-038", "EVD-S51E04-039", "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-041", "EVD-S51E04-045", "EVD-S51E04-046" ], "later_question": "What does Jenna’s later account add about the information she thought she had?", "later_answer": "In October 15 interviews Jenna says she did not know the helicopter alliance, asked Ori to check Alexis’s warning and took his lack of corroboration as evidence Alexis was inventing danger. She thought she was choosing between Alexis and Jelly and describes personal repair with Devin as another reason to keep working options open. This adds her own information/intent account, not direct confirmation of the unshown exchange or other players’ motives.", "later_evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-047", "EVD-S51E04-048", "EVD-S51E04-049", "EVD-S51E04-050", "EVD-S51E04-051" ], "alternative_explanations": [ "Random placement created the five-person setting; it did not itself cast ballots.", "Savu’s challenge loss made those relationships decisive at this Tribal.", "Keeping Ori for physical usefulness, old distrust of Jenna, new concerns about Alexis and coalition preservation all remain relevant.", "The edited suspense does not establish the precise final-decision timing or prove every alternative was sincerely open." ], "contrary_evidence": [ "Jenna knew Devin/Jelly had voted her before and voiced present doubts.", "Devin calls the old-Toka route an option and Jelly considers Alexis; do not claim no consideration occurred.", "Alexis’s warning fits the actual danger even though Jenna rejects its intended action.", "Jenna’s disclosure prompts a negative reaction to Alexis without saving Jenna." ], "unknowns": [ "Full named ballot ledger", "Each voter’s complete private reasons", "Exact decision timing", "Whether a different plan would work", "Independent occurrence/wording of the unshown Ori conversation" ], "public_headline": "NOT_DRAFTED_PHASE_2", "public_framing_decision": "JAMES_REVIEWS_WITH_PHASE_3_CANDIDATE; no separate question approval gate" }, "turns": [ { "turn_id": "T01", "title": "After the Patt vote: anger, resistance and a retained idol", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-001", "EVD-S51E04-002", "EVD-S51E04-003", "EVD-S51E04-004" ], "situation": "The old Toka five has lost Patt; the survivors react to an unexpected result.", "action_or_words": "Brady reports feeling humiliated. Others reject being directed. Jelly describes regret about not playing her idol for Patt and exempts Devin from future targets.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "Brady wants to survive; Jelly wants options after losing an ally. Their own statements support those aims.", "observed_response": "Opponents voice resistance rather than compliance; Jelly retains her stated attachment to Devin.", "result": "A fractured starting group and reported idol access, not a new ballot or observed deployment.", "power_interpretation": "No new qualifying use from anger, a self-description of holding power, prior nonuse regret or possession alone.", "alternative_causes": "The prior result, accumulated mistrust and available resources all shape the starting situation.", "counterevidence": "A resource could matter later, but no present recipient is shown changing because Jelly holds it.", "claim_limit": "Do not diagnose emotion from appearance, reconstruct the prior voter ledger or count the Episode 3 vote again.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T02", "title": "The draw changes contacts and camp conditions", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-006", "EVD-S51E04-007", "EVD-S51E04-008", "EVD-S51E04-009", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-011" ], "situation": "Seventeen remain; prior plans were formed on two beaches.", "action_or_words": "Jeff switches to three tribes by buff draw; Toka and Dina get six members and Savu five. Dina must start camp with basic supplies.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "Players express hope or concern. The host procedure, not a player strategy, determines the groups.", "observed_response": "They accept the rosters, move beaches and begin rebuilding.", "result": "Jenna is with Devin, Jelly, Ori and Alexis. The new group has three old Tokas but cross-tribe ties also exist.", "power_interpretation": "A structural opportunity and random constraint; no player-controlled Legitimate deployment is established.", "alternative_causes": "Chance, roster size, supplies and the pre-existing network explain opportunity independently of persuasion.", "counterevidence": "Old tribal affiliation still supplies a plausible cooperation pitch, but is not an automatic alliance.", "claim_limit": "Do not call the tease a merge, infer buff-selection influence or treat the draw as proof Jenna had no possible move.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T03", "title": "Kilby’s account finds a receptive Eric", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-012", "EVD-S51E04-013", "EVD-S51E04-014", "EVD-S51E04-015" ], "situation": "Dina contains four original Savus, Kilby and Lewis; Lewis is described as unwell.", "action_or_words": "Kilby describes his old tribe as hostile and explicitly hopes sympathy will help. Eric says hearing this makes him want to support and seek revenge for Kilby; they exchange backing.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "Kilby wants an opening in the majority; Eric expresses a wish to work with a compatible person.", "observed_response": "Eric gives a concrete support offer and attributes his response in part to the account he heard.", "result": "A new personal offer, with no observed vote or actual split of the four.", "power_interpretation": "IP01: bounded Informational contribution to Eric’s stated response; shared interests are context for the same interaction.", "alternative_causes": "Eric already wanted a buddy and says he had wanted to work with Kilby; physical hardship and majority arithmetic also matter.", "counterevidence": "An unidentified speaker still wants Savu together; Eric later reassures Sharonda. This does not prove he flipped.", "claim_limit": "Kilby’s allegations are not established mistreatment findings; Lewis’s condition is not diagnosed or treated as an inevitable exit.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T04", "title": "Kristin’s knowledge helps; her apology does not restore Carter’s trust", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-016", "EVD-S51E04-017", "EVD-S51E04-018", "EVD-S51E04-029" ], "situation": "Kristin enters a fractured Toka and wants to make herself useful; Carter remembers exclusion at the earlier Savu vote.", "action_or_words": "She identifies food plants and offers an explanation about the past vote. Recipients recognize her knowledge; Carter calls the reconciliation tactical and says he does not trust her.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "Her stated plan is to understand the group, provide something useful and bring Carter back into cooperation.", "observed_response": "Toka gains a reported food source and Mike credits her help. Carter resists the separate repair attempt.", "result": "Practical acceptance at one activity; relationship repair remains unsuccessful at Carter’s stated trust response.", "power_interpretation": "EX01 supports limited Expert use in food guidance. IP02 is a failed Informational repair attempt. Different actions and responses, not two labels for one use.", "alternative_causes": "Available plants, preparation, hunger and mutual challenge interest help explain the practical reception; old voting history helps explain resistance.", "counterevidence": "Thanks and food benefits do not prove vote protection. Carter explicitly remains wary despite her useful knowledge.", "claim_limit": "Do not turn her job title, survival skill or later immunity into recognized overall leadership or tribe-wide loyalty.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T05", "title": "Jenna treats repair as a usable voting option", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-021" ], "situation": "Three of the five new Savus came from Toka, but Devin and Jelly previously voted against Jenna.", "action_or_words": "Alexis warns Jenna about Devin. Jenna doubts Alexis’s purpose, relays the warning to Devin and pitches rebuilding the old-Toka three.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "Jenna explicitly wants the three votes together and sees a chance to align games that previously differed. Alexis wants a crack in that group.", "observed_response": "Devin hears the pitch as an option but describes ongoing distrust of Jenna; Jenna does not adopt Alexis’s preferred split.", "result": "Jenna has an offered plan, not dependable commitments. Devin and Jelly regard themselves as having choices.", "power_interpretation": "IP03 begins Alexis’s resisted/backfiring warning sequence. IP04 begins Jenna’s relay and the opponents’ later reaction.", "alternative_causes": "Small-group arithmetic, uncertainty about a new acquaintance and prospective shared interest make repair worth attempting.", "counterevidence": "Jenna knows the prior conflict and later expressly questions trust; she is not shown unconditionally believing the old tribe is united.", "claim_limit": "The later unshown Ori conversation is not part of this Episode-time explanation. Devin’s acknowledgment does not establish sincerity.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T06", "title": "Mike’s broad offers meet suspicion; Carter and Thien An exchange trust", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-022", "EVD-S51E04-023", "EVD-S51E04-024", "EVD-S51E04-025" ], "situation": "Mike has lost Patt; Brady describes a need to lower his intensity. Other Toka players consider possible future targets.", "action_or_words": "Mike offers closeness and availability to several people. Thien An and Maggie question the timing and breadth. Carter and Thien An separately share preferences and assurances.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "Mike says he wants a new closest ally while staying flexible. Carter wants to deepen a partnership with Thien An.", "observed_response": "The recorded response to Mike is distrust of his opportunism, while Carter and Thien An welcome their own cooperation.", "result": "A narrowed relationship opening for Mike at these recipients; no Toka Tribal tests either set of promises.", "power_interpretation": "REF01: Mike’s relational appeal backfires at the stated suspicion response. Carter–Thien An is a supported tie and possible Referent pathway, not an additional counted response without a clear relationship-to-change link.", "alternative_causes": "Patt’s exit, old faction divisions and competing Mike/Kristin preferences also explain target talk.", "counterevidence": "Some recipients respond pleasantly to Mike. Thien An and Carter do not clearly agree on the same preferred target.", "claim_limit": "Do not say Mike is universally rejected, Carter has abandoned Kristin in an actual vote, or the new pair controls Toka.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T07", "title": "An old cross-tribe alliance survives the swap", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-026" ], "situation": "Ori, Jelly and Devin are now on the same beach; Sharonda is on Dina.", "action_or_words": "They reaffirm the helicopter tie. Devin plays matchmaker; Jelly says he embarrasses her while still describing him as a close ally.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "They say they want the existing network to work. Ori distinguishes playing for money from seeking romance.", "observed_response": "Jelly records attraction and irritation; the alliance is acknowledged rather than newly created here.", "result": "The old-Toka headcount is incomplete as a map of loyalties.", "power_interpretation": "Relational resources and later REF02 context; no separate use count from flirting, an embarrassing joke or reaffirming an existing bond alone.", "alternative_causes": "Mutual strategic need and prior contact supply reasons beyond attraction.", "counterevidence": "Jelly’s annoyance does not establish a break with Devin, and absent Sharonda gives no new response.", "claim_limit": "Do not count original alliance formation again or infer a romantic bond caused the vote.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T08", "title": "Loverboys draws attention without proving a flip", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-027", "EVD-S51E04-028" ], "situation": "Kilby and Eric have bonded on Dina, while the original Savu four still have numerical advantage.", "action_or_words": "They name their friendship; Kilby identifies Eric as a possible opening. Sharonda expresses concern and Eric reassures her.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "Kilby wants room beyond a minority. Sharonda wants the old group intact; Eric offers reassurance.", "observed_response": "Concern is visible in the words and an assurance is given, but the record does not show concern disappearing.", "result": "An alliance-management problem rather than a completed realignment.", "power_interpretation": "Possible Referent recruitment and Informational reassurance; no added count beyond IP01 because neither new compliance nor an additional resolved response is established.", "alternative_causes": "Shared interests, enjoyment and the safety of the challenge result also matter.", "counterevidence": "Eric still says the old tie is solid, which limits a claim that Kilby has pulled him away.", "claim_limit": "Do not forecast Eric’s ballot or assign every unidentified concern to Linnea or Sharonda.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T09", "title": "The challenge determines which group must vote", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-030", "EVD-S51E04-031", "EVD-S51E04-032" ], "situation": "All three groups compete for two immunity places and different rewards.", "action_or_words": "Dina finishes first. Toka completes its maze second; Jeff accepts completion although the ball falls out afterward. Savu loses.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "Players seek safety and supplies. Host rules determine the valid finish.", "observed_response": "Dina and Toka are safe; Savu must remove someone.", "result": "The Savu options become consequential; no Toka or Dina alliance promise is tested at Tribal.", "power_interpretation": "Formal safety and competition results only; no extra Expert or Legitimate player-use count from performing or winning.", "alternative_causes": "Team execution, water transfer, maze coordination, weather and the host ruling explain the result.", "counterevidence": "An unobserved alternative challenge result cannot tell us whom another tribe would eliminate.", "claim_limit": "Only caption-named competitors are assigned roles; an unnamed request to stop talking does not create an attributed influence finding.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T10", "title": "Jenna commits to Alexis while rejecting collateral", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-033", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-035" ], "situation": "Savu must vote and Jenna still asks whether Devin/Jelly can be trusted.", "action_or_words": "Jenna pitches mutual old-Toka benefit and says Ori is valuable. Alexis urges her to split and requests shoes as collateral; Jenna refuses and says she plans to vote Alexis.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "Jenna wants the familiar three to survive; Alexis wants an assurance and a vote against that group.", "observed_response": "No shoes transfer or alignment with Alexis occurs. Jenna continues the repair plan.", "result": "Alexis’s warning does not obtain its intended recipient action. Jenna’s actual security is unestablished.", "power_interpretation": "IP03 continues; do not count repeated persuasion as another use. Collateral proposal does not establish credible controlled loss, an accepted procedure or an effective conditional reward.", "alternative_causes": "Keeping Ori for physical usefulness and doubt about Alexis are separate considerations.", "counterevidence": "Refusing shoes alone does not reveal a private motive; Jenna’s later explanation supplies her reason in a separate layer.", "claim_limit": "Do not invent a stolen shoe, a coerced ballot, a promise enforced by property or an available new Shot in the Dark.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T11", "title": "Ori names his reason; Jelly weighs the cost of losing him", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-036", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-038", "EVD-S51E04-039" ], "situation": "The alternatives are discussed in terms of two targets and overlapping relationships.", "action_or_words": "Ori links his Jenna target to Devin/Jelly and his bond with Alexis. Jenna relays Alexis’s threat warnings; Jelly reacts against Alexis, then worries that removing her would cause a rift with Ori.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "Ori wants his network intact; Jelly wants a reliable path without harming the helicopter group. Devin describes old conflict with Jenna and new concern about Alexis.", "observed_response": "Ori explicitly backs Jenna as the target. Jelly voices both irritation with Alexis and concern about a coalition cost.", "result": "Target commitments and constraints help explain Jenna’s reported elimination; the exact moment and complete reason for each ballot remain unknown.", "power_interpretation": "REF02: existing ties contribute directly to Ori’s stated target choice. IP04: Jenna’s relay gets a negative Alexis reaction but does not save Jenna. Jelly’s anticipated-rift concern is relevant possible Referent leverage, not a second proven changed-choice count.", "alternative_causes": "Existing distrust of Jenna, keeping a strong competitor and competing longer-term risks all matter.", "counterevidence": "Devin and Jelly contemplate Alexis; that prevents a claim the record proves they never considered Jenna’s proposal.", "claim_limit": "No threat from Ori is shown, and his statement does not prove every voter shared his reason or that he alone caused the result.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" }, { "turn_id": "T12", "title": "Tribal rhetoric does not identify every ballot motive", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-041", "EVD-S51E04-042", "EVD-S51E04-043", "EVD-S51E04-044", "EVD-S51E04-045", "EVD-S51E04-046" ], "situation": "The group publicly discusses three old Tokas versus two old Savus, trust and future choices.", "action_or_words": "Ori argues for crossing the apparent division. Alexis offers loyalty. Jelly questions how dependable charm is. Devin discusses mending cracks; votes are cast.", "supported_intent_and_gain": "They advocate their own futures. The speeches can be strategic and need not disclose settled private plans.", "observed_response": "No new named adopter clearly attributes a changed ballot to a Tribal speech. The read reaches three Jenna and one Alexis and stops.", "result": "Jenna exits; final 4–1 remains attributed reporting. Her exit words describe being blindsided and hurt.", "power_interpretation": "No additional effect from a matching result alone, a vote cast, a generic loyalty offer or an unassigned voting speech.", "alternative_causes": "Chance assignment, immunity loss, prior trust and earlier conversations remain relevant together.", "counterevidence": "Jelly’s public unfamiliarity framing coexists with the privately acknowledged day-one tie; do not treat it as proof no connection existed.", "claim_limit": "Do not infer full named ballots, a complete causal voter map, group control, an unseen idol play or an ordinal that turns Rob into a vote exit.", "order_basis": "RELEASED_EPISODE_ORDER; not a reconstruction of all island chronology" } ], "six_base_scan": [ { "turn_id": "T01", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-001", "EVD-S51E04-002", "EVD-S51E04-003", "EVD-S51E04-004" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Jelly’s reported idol is inherited access, not a new deployment. Regret concerns the prior vote and is not counted again." }, { "turn_id": "T01", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-001", "EVD-S51E04-002", "EVD-S51E04-003", "EVD-S51E04-004" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No distinct conditional player-controlled benefit produces a supported recipient behavior in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T01", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-001", "EVD-S51E04-002", "EVD-S51E04-003", "EVD-S51E04-004" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No credible player-controlled threatened or imposed loss with a supported behavior change is established in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T01", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-001", "EVD-S51E04-002", "EVD-S51E04-003", "EVD-S51E04-004" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No recipient is shown deferring to recognized competence in a distinct effect here; knowledge, praise and performance alone do not qualify." }, { "turn_id": "T01", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-001", "EVD-S51E04-002", "EVD-S51E04-003", "EVD-S51E04-004" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "A relationship or offer may exist, but a separate relationship-linked changed response is not established at this turn’s precision." }, { "turn_id": "T01", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-001", "EVD-S51E04-002", "EVD-S51E04-003", "EVD-S51E04-004" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No additional distinct information-to-belief/action effect is established beyond the linked findings or stated context." }, { "turn_id": "T02", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-006", "EVD-S51E04-007", "EVD-S51E04-008", "EVD-S51E04-009", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-011" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "The host’s random buff procedure changes formal membership. No player controls the rule or draw result; structural chance only." }, { "turn_id": "T02", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-006", "EVD-S51E04-007", "EVD-S51E04-008", "EVD-S51E04-009", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-011" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No distinct conditional player-controlled benefit produces a supported recipient behavior in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T02", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-006", "EVD-S51E04-007", "EVD-S51E04-008", "EVD-S51E04-009", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-011" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No credible player-controlled threatened or imposed loss with a supported behavior change is established in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T02", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-006", "EVD-S51E04-007", "EVD-S51E04-008", "EVD-S51E04-009", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-011" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No recipient is shown deferring to recognized competence in a distinct effect here; knowledge, praise and performance alone do not qualify." }, { "turn_id": "T02", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-006", "EVD-S51E04-007", "EVD-S51E04-008", "EVD-S51E04-009", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-011" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "A relationship or offer may exist, but a separate relationship-linked changed response is not established at this turn’s precision." }, { "turn_id": "T02", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-006", "EVD-S51E04-007", "EVD-S51E04-008", "EVD-S51E04-009", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-011" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No additional distinct information-to-belief/action effect is established beyond the linked findings or stated context." }, { "turn_id": "T03", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-012", "EVD-S51E04-013", "EVD-S51E04-014", "EVD-S51E04-015" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No player-controlled deployment of a recognized rule or delegated right is established in this turn; routine status/voting or host procedure is not an extra use." }, { "turn_id": "T03", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-012", "EVD-S51E04-013", "EVD-S51E04-014", "EVD-S51E04-015" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No distinct conditional player-controlled benefit produces a supported recipient behavior in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T03", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-012", "EVD-S51E04-013", "EVD-S51E04-014", "EVD-S51E04-015" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No credible player-controlled threatened or imposed loss with a supported behavior change is established in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T03", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-012", "EVD-S51E04-013", "EVD-S51E04-014", "EVD-S51E04-015" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No recipient is shown deferring to recognized competence in a distinct effect here; knowledge, praise and performance alone do not qualify." }, { "turn_id": "T03", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-012", "EVD-S51E04-013", "EVD-S51E04-014", "EVD-S51E04-015" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Shared interests and existing attraction to Kilby help explain Eric’s response, but it is the same backing offer counted once under IP01, not an added Referent use." }, { "turn_id": "T03", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-012", "EVD-S51E04-013", "EVD-S51E04-014", "EVD-S51E04-015" ], "finding_ids": [ "IP01" ], "assessment": "SEE_BOUNDED_FINDING", "reason": "The linked finding records action, recipient response, scope, contrary evidence and effectiveness." }, { "turn_id": "T04", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-016", "EVD-S51E04-017", "EVD-S51E04-018", "EVD-S51E04-029" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No player-controlled deployment of a recognized rule or delegated right is established in this turn; routine status/voting or host procedure is not an extra use." }, { "turn_id": "T04", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-016", "EVD-S51E04-017", "EVD-S51E04-018", "EVD-S51E04-029" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Providing food value does not establish a separately induced bargain or changed vote; no second benefit count." }, { "turn_id": "T04", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-016", "EVD-S51E04-017", "EVD-S51E04-018", "EVD-S51E04-029" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No credible player-controlled threatened or imposed loss with a supported behavior change is established in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T04", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-016", "EVD-S51E04-017", "EVD-S51E04-018", "EVD-S51E04-029" ], "finding_ids": [ "EX01" ], "assessment": "SEE_BOUNDED_FINDING", "reason": "The linked finding records action, recipient response, scope, contrary evidence and effectiveness." }, { "turn_id": "T04", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-016", "EVD-S51E04-017", "EVD-S51E04-018", "EVD-S51E04-029" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "A relationship or offer may exist, but a separate relationship-linked changed response is not established at this turn’s precision." }, { "turn_id": "T04", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-016", "EVD-S51E04-017", "EVD-S51E04-018", "EVD-S51E04-029" ], "finding_ids": [ "IP02" ], "assessment": "SEE_BOUNDED_FINDING", "reason": "IP02 is a resisted trust-repair explanation. EX01 also transmits information but the practical competence effect is counted once under Expert." }, { "turn_id": "T05", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-021" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No player-controlled deployment of a recognized rule or delegated right is established in this turn; routine status/voting or host procedure is not an extra use." }, { "turn_id": "T05", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-021" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No distinct conditional player-controlled benefit produces a supported recipient behavior in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T05", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-021" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No credible player-controlled threatened or imposed loss with a supported behavior change is established in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T05", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-021" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No recipient is shown deferring to recognized competence in a distinct effect here; knowledge, praise and performance alone do not qualify." }, { "turn_id": "T05", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-021" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "A relationship or offer may exist, but a separate relationship-linked changed response is not established at this turn’s precision." }, { "turn_id": "T05", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-021" ], "finding_ids": [ "IP03" ], "assessment": "SEE_BOUNDED_FINDING", "reason": "The linked finding records action, recipient response, scope, contrary evidence and effectiveness." }, { "turn_id": "T06", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-022", "EVD-S51E04-023", "EVD-S51E04-024", "EVD-S51E04-025" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No player-controlled deployment of a recognized rule or delegated right is established in this turn; routine status/voting or host procedure is not an extra use." }, { "turn_id": "T06", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-022", "EVD-S51E04-023", "EVD-S51E04-024", "EVD-S51E04-025" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No distinct conditional player-controlled benefit produces a supported recipient behavior in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T06", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-022", "EVD-S51E04-023", "EVD-S51E04-024", "EVD-S51E04-025" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No credible player-controlled threatened or imposed loss with a supported behavior change is established in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T06", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-022", "EVD-S51E04-023", "EVD-S51E04-024", "EVD-S51E04-025" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No recipient is shown deferring to recognized competence in a distinct effect here; knowledge, praise and performance alone do not qualify." }, { "turn_id": "T06", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-022", "EVD-S51E04-023", "EVD-S51E04-024", "EVD-S51E04-025" ], "finding_ids": [ "REF01" ], "assessment": "SEE_BOUNDED_FINDING", "reason": "REF01 is Mike’s backfiring relational appeal. Carter/Thien An’s mutual trust and target-sharing remain possible Referent context; no additional clear changed-response link is isolated." }, { "turn_id": "T06", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-022", "EVD-S51E04-023", "EVD-S51E04-024", "EVD-S51E04-025" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No additional distinct information-to-belief/action effect is established beyond the linked findings or stated context." }, { "turn_id": "T07", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-026" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No player-controlled deployment of a recognized rule or delegated right is established in this turn; routine status/voting or host procedure is not an extra use." }, { "turn_id": "T07", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-026" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No distinct conditional player-controlled benefit produces a supported recipient behavior in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T07", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-026" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No credible player-controlled threatened or imposed loss with a supported behavior change is established in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T07", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-026" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Playful matchmaking advice is not observed game deference to recognized expertise." }, { "turn_id": "T07", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-026" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "An existing network is reaffirmed. Attraction and embarrassment do not establish a distinct changed game decision. REF02 later uses Ori’s explicit relationship-to-choice statement." }, { "turn_id": "T07", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-026" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No additional distinct information-to-belief/action effect is established beyond the linked findings or stated context." }, { "turn_id": "T08", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-027", "EVD-S51E04-028" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No player-controlled deployment of a recognized rule or delegated right is established in this turn; routine status/voting or host procedure is not an extra use." }, { "turn_id": "T08", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-027", "EVD-S51E04-028" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No distinct conditional player-controlled benefit produces a supported recipient behavior in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T08", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-027", "EVD-S51E04-028" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No credible player-controlled threatened or imposed loss with a supported behavior change is established in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T08", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-027", "EVD-S51E04-028" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No recipient is shown deferring to recognized competence in a distinct effect here; knowledge, praise and performance alone do not qualify." }, { "turn_id": "T08", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-027", "EVD-S51E04-028" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Kilby’s proposed future recruitment of Eric is not an observed flip; Eric’s reassurance of Sharonda leaves the split unresolved." }, { "turn_id": "T08", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-027", "EVD-S51E04-028" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Eric’s reassurance occurs but whether it changes Sharonda’s belief is unestablished; not a second resolved effect." }, { "turn_id": "T09", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-030", "EVD-S51E04-031", "EVD-S51E04-032" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Immunity results are formal safety. Jeff’s ruling is not a player exercising a separate social/decision right." }, { "turn_id": "T09", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-030", "EVD-S51E04-031", "EVD-S51E04-032" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No distinct conditional player-controlled benefit produces a supported recipient behavior in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T09", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-030", "EVD-S51E04-031", "EVD-S51E04-032" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No credible player-controlled threatened or imposed loss with a supported behavior change is established in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T09", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-030", "EVD-S51E04-031", "EVD-S51E04-032" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Maze execution and named roles do not establish deference to competence. No inferred caller identity is assigned." }, { "turn_id": "T09", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-030", "EVD-S51E04-031", "EVD-S51E04-032" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "A relationship or offer may exist, but a separate relationship-linked changed response is not established at this turn’s precision." }, { "turn_id": "T09", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-030", "EVD-S51E04-031", "EVD-S51E04-032" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No additional distinct information-to-belief/action effect is established beyond the linked findings or stated context." }, { "turn_id": "T10", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-033", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-035" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No mutually accepted collateral procedure or new Shot in the Dark access is established." }, { "turn_id": "T10", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-033", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-035" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Collateral is not a transferred player-controlled benefit securing a response; no accepted deal. Alexis’s warning is already retained as IP03." }, { "turn_id": "T10", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-033", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-035" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Alexis requests shoes but never controls them; no credible imposed loss or induced compliance. Excluded for missing mechanism, not merely because a real attempt failed." }, { "turn_id": "T10", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-033", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-035" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No recipient is shown deferring to recognized competence in a distinct effect here; knowledge, praise and performance alone do not qualify." }, { "turn_id": "T10", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-033", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-035" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "A relationship or offer may exist, but a separate relationship-linked changed response is not established at this turn’s precision." }, { "turn_id": "T10", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-033", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-035" ], "finding_ids": [ "IP03" ], "assessment": "SEE_BOUNDED_FINDING", "reason": "The linked finding records action, recipient response, scope, contrary evidence and effectiveness." }, { "turn_id": "T11", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-036", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-038", "EVD-S51E04-039" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No player-controlled deployment of a recognized rule or delegated right is established in this turn; routine status/voting or host procedure is not an extra use." }, { "turn_id": "T11", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-036", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-038", "EVD-S51E04-039" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No distinct conditional player-controlled benefit produces a supported recipient behavior in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T11", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-036", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-038", "EVD-S51E04-039" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Jelly’s anticipated rift with Ori is her calculation, not an observed threat he issued." }, { "turn_id": "T11", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-036", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-038", "EVD-S51E04-039" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No recipient is shown deferring to recognized competence in a distinct effect here; knowledge, praise and performance alone do not qualify." }, { "turn_id": "T11", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-036", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-038", "EVD-S51E04-039" ], "finding_ids": [ "REF02" ], "assessment": "SEE_BOUNDED_FINDING", "reason": "REF02 has Ori’s explicit target commitment. Jelly’s fear of damaging the alliance is a relevant possible effect, but a separately observed changed final choice is absent; no second count." }, { "turn_id": "T11", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-036", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-038", "EVD-S51E04-039" ], "finding_ids": [ "IP04" ], "assessment": "SEE_BOUNDED_FINDING", "reason": "The linked finding records action, recipient response, scope, contrary evidence and effectiveness." }, { "turn_id": "T12", "power_base": "Legitimate", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-041", "EVD-S51E04-042", "EVD-S51E04-043", "EVD-S51E04-044", "EVD-S51E04-045", "EVD-S51E04-046" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No special player-controlled advantage deployment established; ordinary ballots are not an automatic new-use tally." }, { "turn_id": "T12", "power_base": "Reward", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-041", "EVD-S51E04-042", "EVD-S51E04-043", "EVD-S51E04-044", "EVD-S51E04-045", "EVD-S51E04-046" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Alexis offers future loyalty; Jelly finds the idea attractive but questions it. No distinct accepted conditional deal or changed behavior is shown." }, { "turn_id": "T12", "power_base": "Coercive", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-041", "EVD-S51E04-042", "EVD-S51E04-043", "EVD-S51E04-044", "EVD-S51E04-045", "EVD-S51E04-046" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No credible player-controlled threatened or imposed loss with a supported behavior change is established in this turn." }, { "turn_id": "T12", "power_base": "Expert", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-041", "EVD-S51E04-042", "EVD-S51E04-043", "EVD-S51E04-044", "EVD-S51E04-045", "EVD-S51E04-046" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "No recipient is shown deferring to recognized competence in a distinct effect here; knowledge, praise and performance alone do not qualify." }, { "turn_id": "T12", "power_base": "Referent", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-041", "EVD-S51E04-042", "EVD-S51E04-043", "EVD-S51E04-044", "EVD-S51E04-045", "EVD-S51E04-046" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "A relationship or offer may exist, but a separate relationship-linked changed response is not established at this turn’s precision." }, { "turn_id": "T12", "power_base": "Informational", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-041", "EVD-S51E04-042", "EVD-S51E04-043", "EVD-S51E04-044", "EVD-S51E04-045", "EVD-S51E04-046" ], "finding_ids": [], "assessment": "NO_ADDITIONAL_QUALIFYING_USE_ESTABLISHED", "reason": "Tribal advocacy is recorded; a matching outcome alone does not identify a new persuaded adopter." } ], "power_findings": [ { "finding_id": "IP01", "power_base": "Informational", "actors": [ "Kilby" ], "recipients": [ "Eric" ], "turn_id": "T03", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-012", "EVD-S51E04-014", "EVD-S51E04-027", "EVD-S51E04-028" ], "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "resource_or_relationship": "Account of prior Toka treatment", "action": "Kilby frames himself as mistreated and seeks sympathy", "supported_actor_intent": "Wants emotional connection and an opening among old Savu", "observed_recipient_response": "Eric says the account makes him want revenge for Kilby and offers backing", "attribution_level": "DIRECTLY_ATTRIBUTED_CONTRIBUTION", "power_state": "DEMONSTRATED_POWER", "effectiveness": "WORKED", "formal_response": "NO_SEPARATE_FORMAL_DEPLOYMENT_ESTABLISHED", "human_response": "Eric says the account makes him want revenge for Kilby and offers backing", "group_response": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_CONTROL_CLAIM", "demonstrated_scope": "Eric’s expressed support/offer, not a cast vote or a whole-group flip", "direction": "Kilby → Eric", "alternative_causes": "Eric already wanted to work with Kilby and shares interests", "counterevidence": "Eric later reassures Sharonda; old Savu cohesion may persist", "durability": "NOT_ESTABLISHED_BEYOND_RECORDED_RESPONSE", "limit": "Do not adopt the mistreatment allegation as independently true or credit Kilby with flipping Eric", "occurrence_assessment": "SUPPORTED_BY_ELIGIBLE_EPISODE_RECORD_AT_DECLARED_TEXT_PRECISION", "intent_assessment": "OWN_STATED_INTENT", "recipient_effect_assessment": "DIRECTLY_ATTRIBUTED_CONTRIBUTION", "group_contribution_assessment": "INDETERMINATE_BEYOND_STATED_SCOPE", "count_unit": "ONE_DISTINCT_EPISODE_ACTION_OR_RELATIONSHIP_TO_RESPONSE; descriptive, not strength", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": true, "shared_contribution": false }, { "finding_id": "EX01", "power_base": "Expert", "actors": [ "Kristin" ], "recipients": [ "Toka food-guidance recipients; Mike explicitly credits benefit" ], "turn_id": "T04", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-016", "EVD-S51E04-017", "EVD-S51E04-029" ], "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "resource_or_relationship": "Studied knowledge of local food plants", "action": "Identifies usable food sources and offers practical guidance", "supported_actor_intent": "Wants to provide something useful while entering the group", "observed_recipient_response": "Recipients rely on the guidance enough to report a new food source; Mike credits her knowledge with helping Toka", "attribution_level": "SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "power_state": "DEMONSTRATED_POWER", "effectiveness": "WORKED", "formal_response": "NO_SEPARATE_FORMAL_DEPLOYMENT_ESTABLISHED", "human_response": "Recipients rely on the guidance enough to report a new food source; Mike credits her knowledge with helping Toka", "group_response": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_CONTROL_CLAIM", "demonstrated_scope": "Practical acceptance of food knowledge only", "direction": "Kristin → practical food-guidance recipients", "alternative_causes": "Hunger, available plants and shared competition interest", "counterevidence": "Carter still distrusts her; specific gathering/eating acts and all individual followers are not continuously visually reviewed", "durability": "NOT_ESTABLISHED_BEYOND_RECORDED_RESPONSE", "limit": "No vote protection, general leadership or extra count as Informational/Reward for the same advice", "occurrence_assessment": "SUPPORTED_BY_ELIGIBLE_EPISODE_RECORD_AT_DECLARED_TEXT_PRECISION", "intent_assessment": "OWN_STATED_INTENT", "recipient_effect_assessment": "SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "group_contribution_assessment": "INDETERMINATE_BEYOND_STATED_SCOPE", "count_unit": "ONE_DISTINCT_EPISODE_ACTION_OR_RELATIONSHIP_TO_RESPONSE; descriptive, not strength", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": true, "shared_contribution": false }, { "finding_id": "IP02", "power_base": "Informational", "actors": [ "Kristin" ], "recipients": [ "Carter" ], "turn_id": "T04", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-018" ], "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "resource_or_relationship": "Explanation of the prior exclusion and attempt to repair cooperation", "action": "Explains the old vote and seeks Carter’s return to the fold", "supported_actor_intent": "Wants to rebuild cooperation with Carter", "observed_recipient_response": "Carter interprets the explanation as tactical and explicitly says he no longer trusts her", "attribution_level": "DIRECTLY_ATTRIBUTED_CONTRIBUTION", "power_state": "POWER_ATTEMPT", "effectiveness": "FAILED", "formal_response": "NO_SEPARATE_FORMAL_DEPLOYMENT_ESTABLISHED", "human_response": "Carter interprets the explanation as tactical and explicitly says he no longer trusts her", "group_response": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_CONTROL_CLAIM", "demonstrated_scope": "Failure to restore Carter’s expressed trust in this exchange", "direction": "Kristin → Carter", "alternative_causes": "Prior exclusion and Kristin’s numerical position", "counterevidence": "He remains civil; useful food knowledge succeeds separately", "durability": "NOT_ESTABLISHED_BEYOND_RECORDED_RESPONSE", "limit": "A resisted attempt remains recorded; no claim she can never regain him or her whole approach failed", "occurrence_assessment": "SUPPORTED_BY_ELIGIBLE_EPISODE_RECORD_AT_DECLARED_TEXT_PRECISION", "intent_assessment": "OWN_STATED_INTENT", "recipient_effect_assessment": "DIRECTLY_ATTRIBUTED_CONTRIBUTION", "group_contribution_assessment": "INDETERMINATE_BEYOND_STATED_SCOPE", "count_unit": "ONE_DISTINCT_EPISODE_ACTION_OR_RELATIONSHIP_TO_RESPONSE; descriptive, not strength", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": true, "shared_contribution": false }, { "finding_id": "IP03", "power_base": "Informational", "actors": [ "Alexis" ], "recipients": [ "Jenna" ], "turn_id": "T05", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-035", "EVD-S51E04-037" ], "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "resource_or_relationship": "Warning about Devin/Jelly and framing the old-Toka division", "action": "Urges Jenna to break from them; makes the warning repeatedly", "supported_actor_intent": "Wants a split and a route to safety", "observed_recipient_response": "Jenna doubts her purpose, continues her old-Toka plan and relays the warning to the people Alexis names", "attribution_level": "STRONGLY_SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "power_state": "POWER_ATTEMPT", "effectiveness": "BACKFIRED", "formal_response": "NO_SEPARATE_FORMAL_DEPLOYMENT_ESTABLISHED", "human_response": "Jenna doubts her purpose, continues her old-Toka plan and relays the warning to the people Alexis names", "group_response": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_CONTROL_CLAIM", "demonstrated_scope": "Warning does not recruit Jenna and is passed to opponents; no exclusive causal attribution for Alexis becoming a target", "direction": "Alexis → Jenna", "alternative_causes": "Jenna already sees a three-person option and lacks full alliance knowledge", "counterevidence": "Alexis survives the vote and her warning describes real danger to Jenna", "durability": "NOT_ESTABLISHED_BEYOND_RECORDED_RESPONSE", "limit": "Backfired concerns this recipient path, not Alexis’s entire round or the truth of the warning. Repeated appeals/collateral are one persuasion sequence.", "occurrence_assessment": "SUPPORTED_BY_ELIGIBLE_EPISODE_RECORD_AT_DECLARED_TEXT_PRECISION", "intent_assessment": "OWN_STATED_INTENT", "recipient_effect_assessment": "STRONGLY_SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "group_contribution_assessment": "INDETERMINATE_BEYOND_STATED_SCOPE", "count_unit": "ONE_DISTINCT_EPISODE_ACTION_OR_RELATIONSHIP_TO_RESPONSE; descriptive, not strength", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": true, "shared_contribution": false }, { "finding_id": "IP04", "power_base": "Informational", "actors": [ "Jenna" ], "recipients": [ "Jelly", "Devin" ], "turn_id": "T11", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-038", "EVD-S51E04-039" ], "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "resource_or_relationship": "Selective disclosure of Alexis’s warnings", "action": "Relays Alexis’s arguments to support rebuilding with Devin/Jelly", "supported_actor_intent": "Wants the three old Tokas to vote together and remove Alexis", "observed_recipient_response": "Devin describes Alexis as disruptive; Jelly responds negatively and considers an Alexis target, while retaining concerns about Ori", "attribution_level": "STRONGLY_SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "power_state": "DEMONSTRATED_POWER", "effectiveness": "MIXED", "formal_response": "NO_SEPARATE_FORMAL_DEPLOYMENT_ESTABLISHED", "human_response": "Devin describes Alexis as disruptive; Jelly responds negatively and considers an Alexis target, while retaining concerns about Ori", "group_response": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_CONTROL_CLAIM", "demonstrated_scope": "Their recorded assessment of Alexis, without the survival outcome Jenna seeks", "direction": "Jenna → Jelly/Devin", "alternative_causes": "Existing priorities, other conversations and Ori’s connections also affect their options", "counterevidence": "Jenna is eliminated and no final named ballot change is verified", "durability": "NOT_ESTABLISHED_BEYOND_RECORDED_RESPONSE", "limit": "This downstream relay is a distinct sender/recipient action from IP03, but neither is counted again for each retelling or as sole cause of a vote", "occurrence_assessment": "SUPPORTED_BY_ELIGIBLE_EPISODE_RECORD_AT_DECLARED_TEXT_PRECISION", "intent_assessment": "OWN_STATED_INTENT", "recipient_effect_assessment": "STRONGLY_SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "group_contribution_assessment": "INDETERMINATE_BEYOND_STATED_SCOPE", "count_unit": "ONE_DISTINCT_EPISODE_ACTION_OR_RELATIONSHIP_TO_RESPONSE; descriptive, not strength", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": true, "shared_contribution": false }, { "finding_id": "REF01", "power_base": "Referent", "actors": [ "Mike" ], "recipients": [ "Thien An", "Maggie" ], "turn_id": "T06", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-023", "EVD-S51E04-024" ], "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "resource_or_relationship": "Offered personal closeness and availability as a new ally", "action": "Presents recipients as people he would be close to outside the game while offering himself widely", "supported_actor_intent": "Says he needs a new closest ally and wants to remain flexible", "observed_recipient_response": "Thien An/Maggie treat the timing and breadth as opportunistic; expressed wariness is reinforced rather than a dependable commitment secured", "attribution_level": "SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "power_state": "POWER_ATTEMPT", "effectiveness": "BACKFIRED", "formal_response": "NO_SEPARATE_FORMAL_DEPLOYMENT_ESTABLISHED", "human_response": "Thien An/Maggie treat the timing and breadth as opportunistic; expressed wariness is reinforced rather than a dependable commitment secured", "group_response": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_CONTROL_CLAIM", "demonstrated_scope": "Recorded relational appeal and wary response at these recipients", "direction": "Mike → Thien An/Maggie", "alternative_causes": "Earlier faction history and other target preferences already existed", "counterevidence": "Other replies are pleasant; distrust is not necessarily new from zero", "durability": "NOT_ESTABLISHED_BEYOND_RECORDED_RESPONSE", "limit": "Do not infer universal rejection, a changed actual ballot or that an offered friendship proves a durable alliance", "occurrence_assessment": "SUPPORTED_BY_ELIGIBLE_EPISODE_RECORD_AT_DECLARED_TEXT_PRECISION", "intent_assessment": "OWN_STATED_INTENT", "recipient_effect_assessment": "SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "group_contribution_assessment": "INDETERMINATE_BEYOND_STATED_SCOPE", "count_unit": "ONE_DISTINCT_EPISODE_ACTION_OR_RELATIONSHIP_TO_RESPONSE; descriptive, not strength", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": true, "shared_contribution": false }, { "finding_id": "REF02", "power_base": "Referent", "actors": [ "Devin", "Jelly", "Alexis" ], "recipients": [ "Ori" ], "turn_id": "T11", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-026", "EVD-S51E04-036" ], "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-EPISODE-v01", "resource_or_relationship": "Existing helicopter ties with Devin/Jelly plus Ori’s bond with Alexis", "action": "Those overlapping ties are invoked in Ori’s account of his Jenna target choice", "supported_actor_intent": "Current deliberate manipulation by all three is NOT_ESTABLISHED; Ori states that he wants those relationships to continue", "observed_recipient_response": "Ori explicitly says Jenna’s position with Devin/Jelly and his relationship with Alexis align him against Jenna, and backs that target", "attribution_level": "DIRECTLY_ATTRIBUTED_CONTRIBUTION", "power_state": "DEMONSTRATED_POWER", "effectiveness": "WORKED", "formal_response": "NO_SEPARATE_FORMAL_DEPLOYMENT_ESTABLISHED", "human_response": "Ori explicitly says Jenna’s position with Devin/Jelly and his relationship with Alexis align him against Jenna, and backs that target", "group_response": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_CONTROL_CLAIM", "demonstrated_scope": "Ori’s expressed target commitment, not a directly inspected ballot or each voter’s reason", "direction": "Existing ties held by Devin/Jelly/Alexis → Ori’s stated choice", "alternative_causes": "Prior distrust, coalition usefulness and physical value also matter", "counterevidence": "Jenna has an apparent three-to-two old-tribe majority; this does not explain the full relationship map", "durability": "NOT_ESTABLISHED_BEYOND_RECORDED_RESPONSE", "limit": "One shared recipient effect. Do not multiply by three influencers, assume coordinated control, count the original alliance again or make romance the cause.", "occurrence_assessment": "SUPPORTED_BY_ELIGIBLE_EPISODE_RECORD_AT_DECLARED_TEXT_PRECISION", "intent_assessment": "CURRENT_DELIBERATE_ACTOR_USE_NOT_ESTABLISHED; ORI_REPORTS_HIS_OWN_REASON", "recipient_effect_assessment": "DIRECTLY_ATTRIBUTED_CONTRIBUTION", "group_contribution_assessment": "INDETERMINATE_BEYOND_STATED_SCOPE", "count_unit": "ONE_DISTINCT_EPISODE_ACTION_OR_RELATIONSHIP_TO_RESPONSE; descriptive, not strength", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": true, "shared_contribution": true } ], "later_assessments": [ { "later_id": "L01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-047", "EVD-S51E04-050", "EVD-S51E04-051" ], "effect": "RETROSPECTIVE_EXPANSION", "claim": "Jenna says she asked Ori to corroborate Alexis’s warning; his reply led her to think Alexis was inventing danger and that she was choosing between Alexis and Jelly.", "own_reason": "DIRECT_SELF_REPORT_OF_HER_BELIEF_FORMATION", "occurrence": "UNSHOWN_CONVERSATION_REPORTED_BY_JENNA_ONLY", "power": "Possible Informational contribution by Ori to Jenna’s belief, conditional on this uncorroborated account. Deliberate deception by Ori is not established.", "attribution_level": "POSSIBLE_CONTRIBUTION", "limit": "Two publications remain one perspective. Cannot promote the unshown exchange into the Episode layer or treat her imagined swing position as actual control.", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-JENNA-POSTGAME-v01", "perspective_origin_id": "PERSPECTIVE-JENNA-DOORE", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": false, "episode_time_record_unchanged": true, "six_base_review": { "Legitimate": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Reward": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Coercive": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Expert": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Referent": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Informational": "POSSIBLE_LATER_ACCOUNT_ONLY; see power field" } }, { "later_id": "L02", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-048", "EVD-S51E04-051" ], "effect": "RETROSPECTIVE_EXPANSION", "claim": "Jenna describes personal repair with Devin as a reason she thought cooperation remained possible, while emphasizing her reading of the options.", "own_reason": "DIRECT_SELF_REPORT_OF_HER_RELATIONSHIP_ASSESSMENT", "occurrence": "UNSHOWN_REPAIR_DETAIL_SELF_REPORTED", "power": "Possible Referent contribution to her willingness to try repair; no separate original-Episode count and no proof of Devin’s sincerity.", "attribution_level": "POSSIBLE_CONTRIBUTION", "limit": "Do not reduce her explanation to liking him, or claim she ignored all risk.", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-JENNA-POSTGAME-v01", "perspective_origin_id": "PERSPECTIVE-JENNA-DOORE", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": false, "episode_time_record_unchanged": true, "six_base_review": { "Legitimate": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Reward": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Coercive": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Expert": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Referent": "POSSIBLE_LATER_ACCOUNT_ONLY; see power field", "Informational": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED" } }, { "later_id": "L03", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-049" ], "effect": "RETROSPECTIVE_EXPANSION", "claim": "Jenna says she refused shoes because she planned to vote Alexis.", "own_reason": "DIRECT_SELF_REPORT_OF_OWN_INTENT", "occurrence": "REFUSAL_ALREADY_IN_EPISODE; REASON_ADDED_LATER", "power": "No new effect; adds her reason to the already observed refusal.", "attribution_level": "INDETERMINATE", "limit": "Her suggestion that Alexis read the signal is not direct evidence of Alexis’s belief.", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-JENNA-POSTGAME-v01", "perspective_origin_id": "PERSPECTIVE-JENNA-DOORE", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": false, "episode_time_record_unchanged": true, "six_base_review": { "Legitimate": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Reward": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Coercive": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Expert": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Referent": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Informational": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED" } }, { "later_id": "L04", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-050", "EVD-S51E04-051", "EVD-S51E04-052" ], "effect": "RETROSPECTIVE_NARROWING", "claim": "Her own expected alternatives differ from the edit’s Jenna/Alexis suspense. She describes promising Lewis/Thien An ties and wonders about a game without the swap.", "own_reason": "OWN_KNOWLEDGE_AND_RELATIONSHIP_RECOLLECTION", "occurrence": "UNSHOWN_PLAN_AND_COUNTERFACTUAL_NOT_VERIFIED", "power": "No additional Power use. Her belief in an alternative majority is not an established executable option or likely result.", "attribution_level": "INDETERMINATE", "limit": "Do not say the swap alone caused her loss, the alternate plan could certainly work, or the prior episodes’ accepted findings are revised.", "evidence_wave_id": "EW-S51E04-JENNA-POSTGAME-v01", "perspective_origin_id": "PERSPECTIVE-JENNA-DOORE", "counts_as_episode_use_or_attempt": false, "episode_time_record_unchanged": true, "six_base_review": { "Legitimate": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Reward": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Coercive": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Expert": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Referent": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED", "Informational": "NO_NEW_DISTINCT_EFFECT_ESTABLISHED" } } ], "formal_resource_analysis": [ { "resource_id": "FR01", "resource": "Jelly’s carried idol", "rule": "Exact accepted prior idol rules; no new expiry invented", "access": "Inherited possession; Jelly again self-reports it", "activation": "NO_NEW_ACTIVATION_CONFIRMED", "deployment": "NO_IDOL_PLAY_RECORDED", "formal_response": "NO_FORMAL_CHANGE_RECORDED", "human_response": "Jelly regrets prior nonuse and says Patt alone knew", "group_response": "UNOBSERVED", "cost": "NO_NEW_CONFIRMED_COST", "conversion": "NONE_CONFIRMED", "expiry": "BY_PRIOR_ACCEPTED_REFERENCE", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-004", "EVD-S51E04-045" ], "power_base_interpretation": "DEFERRED_TO_PHASE_2", "analysis_power_state": "LATENT_FORMAL_POWER", "analysis_effectiveness": "NOT_YET_TESTED", "analysis_reason": "Jelly’s inherited idol remains reported access; no Episode 4 deployment or supported tactical-nonuse effect.", "counts_as_new_episode_use": false, "prior_episode_state_unchanged": true }, { "resource_id": "FR02", "resource": "Devin’s carried extra vote", "rule": "Inherited Episode 3 FR02; do not copy Maggie’s expiry terms", "access": "Prior acquired access; Jenna later refers to it", "activation": "NO_NEW_ACTIVATION_CONFIRMED", "deployment": "NO_EXTRA_VOTE_USE_CONFIRMED", "formal_response": "NO_NEW_CONFIRMED_CHANGE", "human_response": "Later Jenna discusses her calculation", "group_response": "UNOBSERVED", "cost": "NO_NEW_CONFIRMED_COST", "conversion": "UNOBSERVED", "expiry": "UNRESOLVED_BY_PRIOR_RECORD", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-045", "EVD-S51E04-051" ], "power_base_interpretation": "DEFERRED_TO_PHASE_2", "analysis_power_state": "CONDITIONAL_FORMAL_ACCESS", "analysis_effectiveness": "INDETERMINATE", "analysis_reason": "Devin’s inherited acquisition stands, but complete current-use/expiry conditions and deployment remain unverified; do not copy Maggie’s parchment.", "counts_as_new_episode_use": false, "prior_episode_state_unchanged": true }, { "resource_id": "FR03", "resource": "Maggie’s carried extra vote", "rule": "Inherited Episode 3 FR03: usable through six, includes tie/revote", "access": "Prior accepted transfer from Brady", "activation": "NO_NEW_ACTIVATION_CONFIRMED", "deployment": "TOKA_DOES_NOT_ATTEND_TRIBAL", "formal_response": "NO_NEW_CONFIRMED_CHANGE", "human_response": "UNOBSERVED", "group_response": "UNOBSERVED", "cost": "NO_NEW_CONFIRMED_COST", "conversion": "UNOBSERVED", "expiry": "SIX_REMAINING", "evidence_ids": [], "power_base_interpretation": "DEFERRED_TO_PHASE_2", "accepted_input_reference": "Episode 3 FR03", "analysis_power_state": "LATENT_FORMAL_POWER", "analysis_effectiveness": "NOT_YET_TESTED", "analysis_reason": "Maggie’s accepted extra-vote terms remain by reference; Toka does not attend Tribal. No new transfer or promise-compliance finding.", "counts_as_new_episode_use": false, "prior_episode_state_unchanged": true }, { "resource_id": "FR04", "resource": "Carter’s carried idol", "rule": "Inherited Episode 3 FR01; expiry unresolved", "access": "Prior accepted Rob transfer", "activation": "NO_NEW_ACTIVATION_CONFIRMED", "deployment": "TOKA_DOES_NOT_ATTEND_TRIBAL", "formal_response": "NO_NEW_CONFIRMED_CHANGE", "human_response": "UNOBSERVED", "group_response": "UNOBSERVED", "cost": "NO_NEW_CONFIRMED_COST", "conversion": "UNOBSERVED", "expiry": "UNKNOWN", "evidence_ids": [], "power_base_interpretation": "DEFERRED_TO_PHASE_2", "accepted_input_reference": "Episode 3 FR01", "analysis_power_state": "CONDITIONAL_FORMAL_ACCESS", "analysis_effectiveness": "INDETERMINATE", "analysis_reason": "Carter’s accepted idol receipt stands; full current terms are not newly established and Toka is safe. No deployment.", "counts_as_new_episode_use": false, "prior_episode_state_unchanged": true }, { "resource_id": "FR05", "resource": "Tribe assignment and Dina supplies", "rule": "Eighteen buffs, seventeen draws; Dina gets pot, machete, flint", "access": "All seventeen draw under host procedure", "activation": "BUFF_DRAW_COMPLETED", "deployment": "THREE_ROSTERS_FORMED", "formal_response": "TOKA_6_DINA_6_SAVU_5", "human_response": "Separate stated hope/anxiety", "group_response": "ROSTERS_ACCEPTED", "cost": "Prior camp/group disrupted; Dina builds shelter", "conversion": "NEW_MEMBERSHIPS", "expiry": "UNTIL_LATER_CHANGE", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-008", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-011" ], "power_base_interpretation": "DEFERRED_TO_PHASE_2", "analysis_power_state": "STRUCTURAL_OPPORTUNITY_ONLY", "analysis_effectiveness": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "analysis_reason": "Host/random procedure changes rosters; no player-specific control of allocation is established.", "counts_as_new_episode_use": false, "prior_episode_state_unchanged": true }, { "resource_id": "FR06", "resource": "Episode 4 immunity and reward", "rule": "First two safe; first coffee kit, second iced coffee", "access": "All three tribes compete; Thien An and Eric sit out", "activation": "CHALLENGE_COMPLETED", "deployment": "DINA_FIRST_TOKA_SECOND", "formal_response": "DINA_TOKA_SAFE_SAVU_TRIBAL", "human_response": "Recorded congratulations and cooperation", "group_response": "RESULT_ACCEPTED", "cost": "Challenge effort", "conversion": "EPISODE_SAFETY_AND_REWARD", "expiry": "EPISODE_4_TRIBAL", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-030", "EVD-S51E04-031", "EVD-S51E04-032" ], "power_base_interpretation": "DEFERRED_TO_PHASE_2", "analysis_power_state": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "analysis_effectiveness": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "analysis_reason": "Dina/Toka immunity is a Safety Lock from the challenge result, not an extra player Power use; Savu’s loss creates the vote occasion.", "counts_as_new_episode_use": false, "prior_episode_state_unchanged": true }, { "resource_id": "FR07", "resource": "Jenna’s spent Shot in the Dark", "rule": "Prior used resource; no restoration established", "access": "NO_NEW_ACCESS_ESTABLISHED", "activation": "NOT_AVAILABLE_AS_ASSURANCE", "deployment": "NO_NEW_PLAY_RECORDED", "formal_response": "NO_NEW_CONFIRMED_CHANGE", "human_response": "S05 reports no remaining die to lend", "group_response": "UNOBSERVED", "cost": "PRIOR_COST_NOT_REASSESSED", "conversion": "NONE_CONFIRMED", "expiry": "PRIOR_USE_PRESERVED", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-035" ], "power_base_interpretation": "DEFERRED_TO_PHASE_2", "detail_basis": "S05 reporting; exact prior rules by accepted reference", "analysis_power_state": "EXPIRED_OR_CONSUMED", "analysis_effectiveness": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "analysis_reason": "Prior spent Shot in the Dark remains spent at the accepted/reporting precision. No new attempt or inferred restoration.", "counts_as_new_episode_use": false, "prior_episode_state_unchanged": true } ], "formal_outcomes": { "swap": [ 6, 6, 5 ], "first_immunity": "Dina", "second_immunity": "Toka", "tribal": "Savu", "eliminated": "Jenna Doore", "remaining": 16, "directly_captioned_read": { "Jenna": 3, "Alexis": 1, "ballots_read": 4 }, "reported_final_total": { "Jenna": 4, "Alexis": 1, "source_id": "S04", "status": "REPORTED_NOT_FULL_DIRECT_BALLOT_AUDIT" }, "individual_voter_ledger": "NOT_DIRECTLY_VERIFIED", "ordinal_discrepancy": "Host says fifth voted out; there are four vote eliminations plus Rob’s voluntary departure. Name the exit; do not relabel Rob as a vote-out." }, "player_coverage": [ { "player": "Mike", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Toka", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-001", "EVD-S51E04-016", "EVD-S51E04-017", "EVD-S51E04-023", "EVD-S51E04-024", "EVD-S51E04-029" ], "analysis": "Seeks new closeness after Patt, receives some pleasant replies but also suspicion, and credits Kristin’s food help. No universal rejection claim.", "power_finding_ids": [ "REF01" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Carter", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Toka", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-002", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-018", "EVD-S51E04-025" ], "analysis": "Explicit distrust of Kristin; exchanges target preferences and trust with Thien An. Idol access and a prospective bond do not prove a cast vote or group control.", "power_finding_ids": [ "IP02" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Brady", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Toka", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-002", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-022" ], "analysis": "Own humiliation and stated reduction in intensity; challenge/roster context. No new assessed recipient effect merely from being upset or safe.", "power_finding_ids": [], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Thien An", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Toka", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-003", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-024", "EVD-S51E04-025", "EVD-S51E04-030" ], "analysis": "Wary response to Mike; trust with Maggie and Carter; sits out. Prospective target talk is not an actual Toka vote.", "power_finding_ids": [ "REF01" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Kristin", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Toka", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-016", "EVD-S51E04-017", "EVD-S51E04-018", "EVD-S51E04-031" ], "analysis": "Practical Expert effect through food knowledge, resisted repair with Carter, and maze/safe context; no guarantee of vote protection.", "power_finding_ids": [ "EX01", "IP02" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Maggie", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Toka", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-024", "EVD-S51E04-031" ], "analysis": "Participates in the wary response to Mike, is Thien An’s stated close tie and runs the maze; inherited extra vote remains access only.", "power_finding_ids": [ "REF01" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Kilby", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Dina", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-001", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-012", "EVD-S51E04-014", "EVD-S51E04-027", "EVD-S51E04-028" ], "analysis": "Account contributes to Eric’s backing offer; future recruitment remains untested and draws concern. No finding that the majority has flipped.", "power_finding_ids": [ "IP01" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Lewis", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Dina", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-002", "EVD-S51E04-003", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-013", "EVD-S51E04-015" ], "analysis": "Described as unwell while Dina builds camp, and named as a conditional target by an unresolved speaker; no diagnosis, actual vote or weak-Power label.", "power_finding_ids": [], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Sharonda", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Dina", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-006", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-026", "EVD-S51E04-028", "EVD-S51E04-029" ], "analysis": "Own camp disappointment, later worry about Eric/Kilby and receipt of reassurance; no finding the worry disappears or a credible threat was made.", "power_finding_ids": [], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Eric", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Dina", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-014", "EVD-S51E04-027", "EVD-S51E04-028", "EVD-S51E04-030" ], "analysis": "Responds positively to Kilby and reassures Sharonda; bond and promise do not establish abandoning old Savu. Sits out and is formally safe.", "power_finding_ids": [ "IP01" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Linnea", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Dina", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-031", "EVD-S51E04-032" ], "analysis": "Named Dina member and maze competitor; some worried observer turns remain unresolved, so no invented attribution or Expert use.", "power_finding_ids": [], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Cristian", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Dina", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-011", "EVD-S51E04-031", "EVD-S51E04-032" ], "analysis": "States a majority view and handles the maze; four old Savu votes and future compliance are not presumed.", "power_finding_ids": [], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Jelly", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Savu", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-004", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-026", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-038", "EVD-S51E04-041", "EVD-S51E04-042" ], "analysis": "Idol access, response to Alexis warnings, alliance tradeoff and familiar-risk public framing; irritation with matchmaking is not a breakup.", "power_finding_ids": [ "IP04", "REF02" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Devin", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Savu", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-004", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-021", "EVD-S51E04-026", "EVD-S51E04-033", "EVD-S51E04-036", "EVD-S51E04-039", "EVD-S51E04-043" ], "analysis": "Options and distrust stated, receives Jenna’s disclosures and is part of Ori’s valued network; no sole-control verdict or copied extra-vote expiry.", "power_finding_ids": [ "IP04", "REF02" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Jenna", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Savu", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-006", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-020", "EVD-S51E04-033", "EVD-S51E04-034", "EVD-S51E04-035", "EVD-S51E04-037", "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-044", "EVD-S51E04-045", "EVD-S51E04-046", "EVD-S51E04-047", "EVD-S51E04-048", "EVD-S51E04-049", "EVD-S51E04-050", "EVD-S51E04-051", "EVD-S51E04-052" ], "analysis": "Central repair attempt, rejected warning, selective disclosure, collateral refusal, exit and separate later information account; elimination is not a strength score.", "power_finding_ids": [ "IP03", "IP04" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Ori", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Savu", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-009", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-026", "EVD-S51E04-036", "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-043" ], "analysis": "Explicit relationship-linked Jenna target is the bounded Referent response; his unshown reply to Jenna is a later, uncorroborated account.", "power_finding_ids": [ "REF02" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Alexis", "status": "ACTIVE_AT_EPISODE_START", "roster": "Savu", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E04-005", "EVD-S51E04-010", "EVD-S51E04-019", "EVD-S51E04-035", "EVD-S51E04-040", "EVD-S51E04-042", "EVD-S51E04-043" ], "analysis": "Warnings and collateral request fail to recruit Jenna; her bond with Ori helps explain his preference. Surviving does not convert all her attempts into successes.", "power_finding_ids": [ "IP03", "REF02" ], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Aaliyah", "status": "DEPARTED_BEFORE_EPISODE_4", "roster": null, "evidence_ids": [], "analysis": "Prior departure and accepted findings only; no new Episode 4 assessment or count.", "power_finding_ids": [], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Ana", "status": "DEPARTED_BEFORE_EPISODE_4", "roster": null, "evidence_ids": [], "analysis": "Prior departure and accepted Episode 2 limits only; no new assessment or repaired tally.", "power_finding_ids": [], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Patt", "status": "DEPARTED_BEFORE_EPISODE_4", "roster": null, "evidence_ids": [], "analysis": "Accepted prior exit; others’ regret/reactions are new Episode 4 context, not a recounted Episode 3 use or rewritten voter map.", "power_finding_ids": [], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false }, { "player": "Rob", "status": "DEPARTED_BEFORE_EPISODE_4", "roster": null, "evidence_ids": [], "analysis": "Prior voluntary departure affects roster arithmetic; do not count him as a vote elimination or reopen the health/private-motive dispute.", "power_finding_ids": [], "missing_assessment_is_zero": false } ], "editorial_check": { "filter": "Workflow/RPM_Public_Language_Filter_v1.md", "source_note_reference": "../survivor-s51e04-phase1-v01/source/editorial-source-notes.json", "same_question_retained": true, "game_sources_only_for_factual_answer": true, "audience_prevalence_claim": "NONE", "source_to_answer_observation": "Caruso’s relationship-repair question stays the question tested, rather than becoming a certainty that Jenna had no alternatives. Dehnart’s criticism identifies the swap as a candidate cause; analysis separates the chance setting from stated choices and refuses the sole-cause verdict.", "performed_check": "Compared the original model-angle note with the actual Phase 2 question, evidence chains, counterevidence and separate later answer. No new model or game source collected.", "named_revisions": [ "Qualified certainty as an attempted voting plan because Jenna voices doubts.", "Kept Ori’s unshown reply and personal repair details in the later answer.", "Replaced any implication that old tribal numbers guaranteed a majority with the recorded cross-tribe relationships." ], "full_page_pass": "NOT_PERFORMED; actual headline, opening, player prose, captions and rendered page require Phase 3", "human_authorship_certification": "NOT_CLAIMED; preserve Phase 1 access/byline limits", "models_reused": [ { "source_id": "S04", "author": "Nick Caruso", "locator": "The tribe has spoken; paragraph discussing Jenna" }, { "source_id": "S08", "author": "Andy Dehnart", "locator": "Opening criticism following fractured original-tribe discussion" } ] }, "limitations": [ { "id": "G01", "detail": "Unresolved speakers and confessional camera context; use CONTEXT_INDETERMINATE rather than italics as proof.", "dependent_claim": "Specific speaker/context claims only" }, { "id": "G02", "detail": "Three Jenna/one Alexis read is not the full five ballots; final 4–1 is attributed reporting. No full named ballot ledger inspected.", "dependent_claim": "Exact direct tally/voter identity claims" }, { "id": "G03", "detail": "Official recap’s four total refers to shown read, and its fourth eliminated/fifth departure language differs from host fifth voted out.", "dependent_claim": "Distinguish read total, reported final total and exit ordinal" }, { "id": "G04", "detail": "Continuous audiovisual/uncaptioned review absent; no diagnosis of Lewis or private-motive inference.", "dependent_claim": "Visual-only events, health and motive" }, { "id": "G05", "detail": "Original caption first availability not observed; publisher metadata does not establish prospective T+0.", "dependent_claim": "Exact availability-clock assertion" }, { "id": "G06", "detail": "Jenna’s unseen Ori conversation, intended Jelly countertarget and relationship explanations are later self-report.", "dependent_claim": "No hindsight inserted into Episode record" }, { "id": "G07", "detail": "Advantage deployment/expiry unknown where not shown; old transfer terms preserved exactly.", "dependent_claim": "Resource-specific effectiveness and expiry" }, { "id": "G08", "detail": "Earlier availability notes said v104 was absent; October 16 live check found it and its full text was read. Preserve the dated correction.", "dependent_claim": "Do not repeat the superseded absence statement as current" } ], "descriptive_counts": { "unit": "Distinct bounded Episode 4 use/attempt/relationship-to-response records; not player strength", "episode": 4, "episode_records": 7, "by_primary_base": { "Informational": 4, "Expert": 1, "Referent": 2 }, "by_effectiveness": { "WORKED": 3, "FAILED": 1, "BACKFIRED": 2, "MIXED": 1 }, "worked_records": [ "IP01", "EX01", "REF02" ], "shared_contribution_rule": "REF02 is one shared recipient effect, not three separate uses; no repeated relay, prior alliance formation, later retelling or secondary-base double count", "later_records_added_to_episode_count": 0, "unqualifying_candidate_note": "No new qualifying Legitimate, Reward or Coercive use established; not zero underlying capacity." }, "protected_input_hashes": { "AGENTS.md": "53a7858b15cd606b5385aa1922f83df948a90a1d9aa050e52bf93913f957767d", "Workflow/README.md": 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