{ "artifact_id": "RPM-SV-US-S51E03-PH2-v01", "task_id": "RPM-TASK-20261009-213", "created_at": "2026-10-09T15:23:28Z", "phase": "2 — Analysis", "status": "PHASE_2_COMPLETE_WITH_EXPLICIT_LIMITS", "result_class": "QUALITATIVE_POWER_ANALYSIS", "scoring": "GOVERNED_SCORING_DISABLED", "input_manifest_path": "outputs/survivor-s51e03-phase1-v01/RPM_Survivor_S51E03_Phase1_Package_v0_1.manifest.json", "input_manifest_sha256": "5fa7ecf9d8131d2e57034cd60613e0e7bdf55d962fbe0662cb4d703d6f591921", "input_aggregate_sha256": "b14ec314b37a7de52360035a44b589963ad0eeb3c3580c95c31397b8049fcbcd", "input_evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09T06:27:24Z", "source_refresh": "NONE; ALL_GAME_FACTS_FROM_EXACT_PHASE_1_SET", "governance": [ { "path": "Workflow/02 RPM_Data_Analysis.md", "sha256": "6d2ebdb018843dfd0ec50d9e83af490165e809dbe1702d0c44a8c12cbcab2fe0" }, { "path": "Workflow/RPM_Audience_Questions_and_Final_Stories_Method_v3.md", "sha256": "78a668bbe6609c052149ce1bd6c50402ec6407ebc891a5fb1f5177a6eedac225" }, { "path": "outputs/survivor-methodology/RPM_Survivor_Methodology_v1_5.md", "sha256": "efa4bf52d2e9777e66eeb688886b34309a949c27f1bec87841c784897b1ed7d4" }, { "path": "outputs/survivor-methodology/RPM_Survivor_Season_51_Four_Phase_Runbook_v0_9.md", "sha256": "fa26c4868506c8535520e40a538195dfe658fa984006ccc31fff99b490bf849f" }, { "path": "outputs/survivor-methodology/RPM_Survivor_Methodology_v1_2.md", "sha256": "ba639fc05489c37bc06bdf0398cb6493df629fdea83e6b8159b20bb3b8731481" } ], "answer": { "question": "Why did Patt go home after Brady heard that her name was being discussed?", "status": "WORKING_ANALYTICAL_QUESTION; PUBLIC_WORDING_FOR_PHASE_3_REVIEW; NO_EXTRA_APPROVAL_GATE", "episode_answer": "The warning reached Brady, but he continued to expect his voting group to prevail. Thien An gave the countertarget a specific name and a reason to prefer Patt over Mike. Carter and Lewis discussed greater room to act with that group, and the official recap reports that both voted Patt. Six counted ballots eliminated Patt despite the five counted Kilby ballots. This is a supported combination of target framing, separate player choices and mistaken expectations, not proof that one person controlled every vote.", "episode_limit": "The record does not show Brady passing the warning to Patt; absence from the edit does not prove he never did. The complete voter ledger, extra-vote deployment, all private motives and whether another action would certainly have saved Patt are unestablished.", "later_answer": "Patt later says Brady did not warn her, that she expected Mike or Kilby, and that she wanted to keep her vote instead of trying Shot in the Dark. Those are separately attributed later accounts of her knowledge and reasoning.", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-026", "EVD-S51E03-027", "EVD-S51E03-028", "EVD-S51E03-029", "EVD-S51E03-030", "EVD-S51E03-031", "EVD-S51E03-032", "EVD-S51E03-041", "EVD-S51E03-043", "EVD-S51E03-044" ], "contribution": "SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION; MULTIPLE_DECISIONS_AND_FORMAL_FACTORS", "counterexamples": [ "Thien An’s target argument gains group agreement, while her warning meets Brady’s resistance.", "Brady recognizes Carter’s concealment yet welcomes him; shared identification prompts an offer but does not secure Carter’s reported vote.", "Devin gets Ori’s stated reassurance across tribes without demonstrating control of the local Toka vote.", "Maggie holds an extra vote but neither possession nor a promise supplies a proven ballot effect." ], "prohibited_extensions": [ "Brady deliberately sacrificed Patt", "Thien An alone controlled all six voters", "Carter and Lewis controlled the whole game", "All outsiders voted for the same reason", "Maggie definitely kept/broke her promise", "An extra vote decided this tally", "Patt’s charm proves she controlled other players", "Rob’s infection was confirmed or fabricated", "A defensive play would certainly save Patt" ] }, "turns": [ { "id": "T01", "title": "Rob leaves; Carter receives an idol", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-004", "EVD-S51E03-005", "EVD-S51E03-006", "EVD-S51E03-007", "EVD-S51E03-008", "EVD-S51E03-009" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "situation": "Rob reports pain and little sleep after the Ana vote. Carter already describes being outside the vote.", "action": "Medical examines Rob without pulling him. Rob leaves voluntarily; Carter reports receiving the idol and paperwork.", "supported_intent": "Rob says health risk matters to him. Other players suspect an easy exit. These accounts do not settle his private motive.", "recipient_response": "Eric and Ori voice skepticism; Carter says he lost an ally but welcomes the idol.", "result": "Savu loses a member. Carter gains reported idol possession; full use/expiry terms and any deployment are not confirmed.", "power_implication": "Idol possession is formal access, with activation/use terms limited to the source record. A gift without a demonstrated induced action is not a completed Reward effect. Voluntary exit is a formal departure, not evidence of game influence.", "other_causes": "Physical discomfort, exhaustion and player choice remain distinct from strategic influence; no diagnosis is inferred.", "counterevidence": "Medical did not require removal, but that does not prove Rob had no pain or fabricated his account.", "limit": "Do not call this a medical evacuation, an engineered elimination, proven fabrication or a boost in Carter’s social control." }, { "id": "T02", "title": "Patt’s relay changes Brady’s reading of Kilby", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-011", "EVD-S51E03-012", "EVD-S51E03-026", "EVD-S51E03-029" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "situation": "Kilby describes building dependable numbers and uses a dismissive comparison about Brady while talking with a partner.", "action": "Patt relays the remark. Brady interprets it as being treated as a pawn, rejects that role and later intends to target Kilby.", "supported_intent": "Brady states his own interpretation and desire to prove Kilby wrong. Patt’s exact tactical purpose is not fully established in the Episode layer.", "recipient_response": "Brady’s own words connect the report with his altered assessment of Kilby.", "result": "The Kilby target has explicit backing, but the final result is not the outcome Brady seeks.", "power_implication": "Patt demonstrates bounded Informational contribution to Brady’s perception. Kilby’s intended closeness does not establish Referent influence over Brady.", "other_causes": "Existing Devin–Kilby conflict and other strategic priorities also support targeting Kilby.", "counterevidence": "Brady’s stronger desire to remove Kilby does not give the five enough votes or ensure that an ally survives.", "limit": "Do not attribute the entire Kilby plan or Patt’s elimination to this single exchange." }, { "id": "T03", "title": "Devin reconnects across tribes", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-013", "EVD-S51E03-014", "EVD-S51E03-015", "EVD-S51E03-016" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "situation": "A visit offers Devin an advantage clue and an optional tribe switch; Sharonda and Ori are prior allies on Savu.", "action": "Sharonda seeks a private alliance conversation; Devin discloses the clue, they retrieve an extra vote, and he also tells Ori about it before returning to Toka.", "supported_intent": "Sharonda wants to know where their alliance stands. Devin explicitly says his disclosure to Ori aims to strengthen trust.", "recipient_response": "Sharonda helps search. Ori says knowing an ally holds an advantage reassures him that Devin still remembers him.", "result": "Devin gains an extra vote and a stated positive response from Ori. No later protection or vote from Savu is observed.", "power_implication": "Devin’s disclosure supports Informational influence on Ori’s stated belief about their continuing alliance. Prior bonds help organize the sharing, but this alone does not show every ally changing a decision because of Referent Power.", "other_causes": "The visitor rule supplies the clue, Sharonda’s work helps retrieval, and the mutual value of future allies helps explain cooperation.", "counterevidence": "An encouraging trust statement is narrower than a voting commitment. Helping retrieve an object is not automatic Expert deference.", "limit": "Keep extra-vote access separate from deployment; do not copy Maggie’s document expiry to Devin without evidence or claim cross-tribe control." }, { "id": "T04", "title": "The letter and the extra-vote bargain", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-017", "EVD-S51E03-018", "EVD-S51E03-019", "EVD-S51E03-020" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "situation": "Carter focuses on conversations while his bag remains accessible. Other players learn the paddle location from the letter.", "action": "The clue prompts the oar search. Brady and Maggie secure the extra vote; Brady conditions transfer on a vote-alignment promise, which Maggie makes, and he hands it over.", "supported_intent": "Maggie says she wants the advantage herself. Brady’s stated condition is alignment with his vote.", "recipient_response": "Brady and Maggie act on the location information. Maggie gives the requested verbal promise; actual later compliance is not established.", "result": "Maggie holds the extra vote; Carter does not obtain it. The text specifies Maggie’s expiry and tie/revote rule.", "power_implication": "The discovered clue has a supported Informational effect on the search. Brady makes a Reward attempt and obtains a declaration, not demonstrated control of Maggie’s ballot.", "other_causes": "Access to Carter’s letter, physical retrieval and Maggie’s request all matter; no single actor controls the whole sequence.", "counterevidence": "The source does not establish a complete individual vote ledger. A verbal bargain may be strategic, and resource possession does not prove use.", "limit": "Do not state that Maggie definitely kept or broke her promise, that Brady bought her vote, or that she controlled Tribal with the extra vote." }, { "id": "T05", "title": "Brady’s welcome and Carter’s missed boat", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-021", "EVD-S51E03-022", "EVD-S51E03-023" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "situation": "Carter has the option to join Toka and is looking for openings there. Brady expresses identification with Carter’s background.", "action": "Carter minimizes the additional advantage opportunity. Brady says he recognizes the deception but offers support. Carter searches for missing oars and misses the return departure.", "supported_intent": "Brady connects Carter’s familiar farm/football identity with wanting him as an ally. Carter wants options and remains cautious about the welcome.", "recipient_response": "Brady offers an alliance assurance despite disbelieving the denial. Carter hears it as a possible opening, not a binding reason to follow Brady.", "result": "The host confirms Carter becomes Toka. The caption account supports an unplanned missed departure rather than a proven deliberate mutiny.", "power_implication": "Carter’s concealment is an Informational attempt resisted by Brady. Carter → Brady has bounded Referent support at the decision to offer an alliance; no reciprocal loyalty or actual protection is demonstrated. The mutiny is a rule result without established deliberate procedural deployment.", "other_causes": "Carter’s time allocation, missing implements, the return deadline and the visitor rule all contribute to the move.", "counterevidence": "Brady recognizes the deception, Carter doubts the assurance, and the official recap later reports Carter votes for Patt.", "limit": "Do not say Brady made Carter stay, that Toka intentionally trapped him, that Carter planned the missed boat, or that shared identity secured Carter’s vote." }, { "id": "T06", "title": "The challenge creates the vote; the sit-out dispute persists", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-024", "EVD-S51E03-025", "EVD-S51E03-026" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "situation": "Toka has eleven players to Savu’s seven and must sit out four. Toka builds an early lead but loses at the puzzle.", "action": "Savu wins immunity and hens. Kilby later says Devin forced him to sit out; Devin contests that account and cites needing Kilby next time.", "supported_intent": "Kilby says he wanted the puzzle role; Devin gives his own different account. Kilby’s hypothetical claim that he would have won is unverified.", "recipient_response": "They dispute the earlier decision and each other’s trustworthiness; the friction feeds their competing target plans.", "result": "Toka must hold Tribal. Savu receives formal safety. The personal conflict remains unresolved.", "power_implication": "Challenge success and safety are formal/performance context. Expert deference and a successful Coercive sit-out mechanism are not established by the competing accounts.", "other_causes": "Challenge rules, physical execution and puzzle performance produce the need for a vote; the earlier social dispute is not the sole cause of the loss.", "counterevidence": "The published record includes disagreement about the selection process and no demonstrated superior alternative puzzle outcome.", "limit": "Do not blame a single player for the challenge loss, infer group obedience to Devin, or award Expert Power from performance alone." }, { "id": "T07", "title": "Five close allies still need more commitments", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-010", "EVD-S51E03-026", "EVD-S51E03-027", "EVD-S51E03-028", "EVD-S51E03-029" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "situation": "Devin, Brady, Jelly, Patt and Mike are described as a tight five in a tribe of eleven. Carter and Lewis have not voted with Toka yet.", "action": "The five pursue Kilby and discuss needing six. Carter and Lewis compare the two groups. Countertarget conversations initially consider Mike while expressing reluctance to target certain friends.", "supported_intent": "The five want Kilby out. Carter and Lewis consider their room to act and the risk of becoming targets; personal preferences help shape the initial countertarget.", "recipient_response": "Both sides seek outside commitments. Kilby claims Brady as an ally, while Brady privately describes intending to remove him.", "result": "No complete commitment ledger proves the five have enough support. The countertarget remains open to revision.", "power_implication": "An alliance is a coordination resource, not automatic tribe-wide Referent or Legitimate Power. Kilby’s assumed claim on Brady is contradicted by Brady’s stated plan.", "other_causes": "The new tribe size, overlapping ties, conflicting assurances and strategic interests all matter.", "counterevidence": "Some countertarget players initially protect members of the five; the later result cannot prove those preferences never existed.", "limit": "Do not call the five a secured majority, assign every vote from alliance labels, or assume everyone outside the five shared a private motive." }, { "id": "T08", "title": "Thien An gives the countertarget a specific name", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-027", "EVD-S51E03-028", "EVD-S51E03-030", "EVD-S51E03-032", "EVD-S51E03-041" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "situation": "Other players consider disrupting the five, with Mike initially discussed as a relatively easy target.", "action": "Thien An argues that Patt is better able to form connections elsewhere and therefore a more consequential target. Recorded replies agree on Patt and secrecy.", "supported_intent": "Thien An states her assessment of future danger. That is her reasoning, not proof of Patt’s future social reach.", "recipient_response": "The presented group adopts Patt’s name in the conversation; not every adopter is individually identifiable from the captions.", "result": "The final six counted Patt ballots are consistent with that target plan. Carter and Lewis voting Patt is official reporting, not a directly inspected ballot ledger.", "power_implication": "Supported Informational contribution to target selection and the group result; sufficient for bounded advocacy, insufficient for sole authorship or control of all six votes.", "other_causes": "Carter/Lewis’s autonomy concerns, the availability of a countergroup, earlier Mike discussion and the five’s failure to secure enough commitments also matter.", "counterevidence": "Several participants already wanted to disrupt the five, and some originally preferred Mike. Thien An did not create every strategic interest.", "limit": "Do not turn her forecast about Patt into demonstrated Referent Power by Patt, or claim Thien An single-handedly caused the exit." }, { "id": "T09", "title": "The warning reaches Brady but meets resistance", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-029", "EVD-S51E03-031", "EVD-S51E03-033", "EVD-S51E03-041" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "situation": "Brady describes playing both sides and pursuing Kilby. Thien An tells him the discussion has moved to Patt.", "action": "Brady questions the report and then dismisses the plan’s chances, saying his group is larger and Thien An lacks the ability to make it happen.", "supported_intent": "His own words show reliance on the expected voting group. Thien An’s ultimate reason for disclosing the name is not established.", "recipient_response": "He receives the information but does not express adopting her assessment or revising his stated plan. The Episode does not show him passing the warning to Patt.", "result": "The final result contradicts Brady’s forecast. It does not establish what every unseen conversation contained.", "power_implication": "A directed Informational attempt receives resistance. Hearing accurate information and converting it into useful action are different steps.", "other_causes": "Misreading commitments, existing confidence in the five and fixation on Kilby can help explain the dismissal; their relative weights cannot be measured.", "counterevidence": "The warning proves Patt’s name was available to Brady. His later Tribal statement admits plans became unsettled, so do not claim he had no awareness of risk.", "limit": "Do not claim he deliberately sacrificed Patt or could certainly have saved her by relaying the warning." }, { "id": "T10", "title": "Carter and Lewis choose room to act; Patt leaves", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-027", "EVD-S51E03-030", "EVD-S51E03-032", "EVD-S51E03-034", "EVD-S51E03-035", "EVD-S51E03-036", "EVD-S51E03-037", "EVD-S51E03-038", "EVD-S51E03-039", "EVD-S51E03-040", "EVD-S51E03-041", "EVD-S51E03-042" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "situation": "Carter and Lewis identify themselves between the five and the other four; both discuss the costs of declaring a side.", "action": "They compare the security of joining the five with the greater opportunity they see in the other group. Tribal statements still describe uncertain boundaries.", "supported_intent": "Their own accounts support concern about becoming subordinate numbers and interest in shaping their own position.", "recipient_response": "The official recap reports both vote Patt. The countertarget receives six counted ballots against five for Kilby.", "result": "Patt is eliminated. Her included exit words report surprise and disappointment; Kilby survives this vote.", "power_implication": "Their choices support bounded contribution to the countertarget. Joint planning does not identify a separate directional Referent effect between them, and surviving the vote is not proof of Kilby’s control.", "other_causes": "Thien An’s targeting argument, the outsiders’ interests, earlier deceptive assurances, the challenge result and the final ballot structure jointly explain the outcome.", "counterevidence": "Carter publicly agrees with Jelly at Tribal but official reporting puts his vote elsewhere; public agreement is not a vote commitment. Patt’s popularity does not ensure protection.", "limit": "Preserve the full voter-map and extra-vote-use holds. Do not say every voter acted for the same reason or that the countergroup will remain loyal next Episode." } ], "power_effects": [ { "id": "IP01", "base": "Informational", "actors": [ "Patt" ], "recipients": [ "Brady" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-011", "EVD-S51E03-012", "EVD-S51E03-026", "EVD-S51E03-029" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "resource": "Kilby’s reported remark", "action": "Relays the remark", "observed_response": "Brady interprets himself as a pawn and rejects that role", "power_state": "DEMONSTRATED_POWER", "effectiveness": "WORKED", "attribution": "DIRECTLY_ATTRIBUTED_CONTRIBUTION", "magnitude": "Brady’s stated assessment and target intention", "durability": "CURRENT_EPISODE_RESPONSE_ONLY; NO_LATER_EPISODE_CLAIM", "limit": "The reaction does not secure a majority, assign his ballot or prove this remark alone caused his plan.", "qualifying_episode_use": true, "counting_unit": "ONE_BOUNDED_EVENT_RESPONSE; NOT_A_PLAYER_SCORE", "occurrence_confidence": "SUPPORTED_TEXT_RECORD_WITH_DECLARED_ATTRIBUTION_LIMITS", "actor_intent_confidence": "STATED_WHERE_AVAILABLE; OTHERWISE_BOUNDED_INFERENCE_OR_UNKNOWN", "recipient_effect_confidence": "ONLY_THE_RESPONSE_NAMED_HERE", "group_contribution_confidence": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_MOTIVE_OR_SOLE_CONTROL", "conversion_status": "NO_LATER_CONVERSION_ASSUMED" }, { "id": "IP02", "base": "Informational", "actors": [ "Toka clue-discovery group; Lewis reported as bag-searcher; exact relay speaker unresolved" ], "recipients": [ "Brady", "Maggie" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-018", "EVD-S51E03-019", "EVD-S51E03-020" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "resource": "Location in Carter’s letter", "action": "Location becomes known and is acted on", "observed_response": "Search/opening of the oars produces the extra vote", "power_state": "DEMONSTRATED_POWER", "effectiveness": "WORKED", "attribution": "SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "magnitude": "Two identified searchers and the retrieved resource", "durability": "CURRENT_EPISODE_RESPONSE_ONLY; NO_LATER_EPISODE_CLAIM", "limit": "Do not credit Lewis with every oral relay or the whole retrieval; physical access and joint work also contribute.", "qualifying_episode_use": true, "counting_unit": "ONE_BOUNDED_EVENT_RESPONSE; NOT_A_PLAYER_SCORE", "occurrence_confidence": "SUPPORTED_TEXT_RECORD_WITH_DECLARED_ATTRIBUTION_LIMITS", "actor_intent_confidence": "STATED_WHERE_AVAILABLE; OTHERWISE_BOUNDED_INFERENCE_OR_UNKNOWN", "recipient_effect_confidence": "ONLY_THE_RESPONSE_NAMED_HERE", "group_contribution_confidence": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_MOTIVE_OR_SOLE_CONTROL", "conversion_status": "NO_LATER_CONVERSION_ASSUMED" }, { "id": "IP03", "base": "Informational", "actors": [ "Devin" ], "recipients": [ "Ori" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-016" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "resource": "Knowledge of Devin’s new advantage", "action": "Discloses it to his existing ally", "observed_response": "Ori says the disclosure reassures him that Devin still remembers their alliance", "power_state": "DEMONSTRATED_POWER", "effectiveness": "WORKED", "attribution": "DIRECTLY_ATTRIBUTED_CONTRIBUTION", "magnitude": "Ori’s stated perception of continued alliance attention", "durability": "CURRENT_EPISODE_RESPONSE_ONLY; NO_LATER_EPISODE_CLAIM", "limit": "No future ballot, protection, broad tribe trust or separate counted Referent effect is established by that statement.", "qualifying_episode_use": true, "counting_unit": "ONE_BOUNDED_EVENT_RESPONSE; NOT_A_PLAYER_SCORE", "occurrence_confidence": "SUPPORTED_TEXT_RECORD_WITH_DECLARED_ATTRIBUTION_LIMITS", "actor_intent_confidence": "STATED_WHERE_AVAILABLE; OTHERWISE_BOUNDED_INFERENCE_OR_UNKNOWN", "recipient_effect_confidence": "ONLY_THE_RESPONSE_NAMED_HERE", "group_contribution_confidence": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_MOTIVE_OR_SOLE_CONTROL", "conversion_status": "NO_LATER_CONVERSION_ASSUMED" }, { "id": "IP04", "base": "Informational", "actors": [ "Thien An" ], "recipients": [ "presented countertarget group; individual replies partly unresolved" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-028", "EVD-S51E03-030", "EVD-S51E03-032", "EVD-S51E03-041" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "resource": "Comparative framing of Patt and Mike as targets", "action": "Argues for Patt because she perceives greater ability to connect elsewhere", "observed_response": "Recorded group agreement chooses Patt; formal result is consistent", "power_state": "CONVERTED_POWER", "effectiveness": "WORKED", "attribution": "SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "magnitude": "Target choice and bounded contribution to the six-ballot result", "durability": "CURRENT_EPISODE_RESPONSE_ONLY; NO_LATER_EPISODE_CLAIM", "limit": "No sole authorship, full adopter map, identical motives or proven future social reach by Patt.", "qualifying_episode_use": true, "counting_unit": "ONE_BOUNDED_EVENT_RESPONSE; NOT_A_PLAYER_SCORE", "occurrence_confidence": "SUPPORTED_TEXT_RECORD_WITH_DECLARED_ATTRIBUTION_LIMITS", "actor_intent_confidence": "STATED_WHERE_AVAILABLE; OTHERWISE_BOUNDED_INFERENCE_OR_UNKNOWN", "recipient_effect_confidence": "ONLY_THE_RESPONSE_NAMED_HERE", "group_contribution_confidence": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_MOTIVE_OR_SOLE_CONTROL", "conversion_status": "NO_LATER_CONVERSION_ASSUMED" }, { "id": "IP05", "base": "Informational", "actors": [ "Thien An" ], "recipients": [ "Brady" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-031", "EVD-S51E03-041" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "resource": "Information that the target discussion includes Patt", "action": "Communicates the contrary target information", "observed_response": "Brady questions then rejects the stated likelihood of that plan succeeding", "power_state": "POWER_ATTEMPT", "effectiveness": "FAILED", "attribution": "CONTRADICTED", "magnitude": "Failure to change Brady’s expressed assessment at this checkpoint", "durability": "CURRENT_EPISODE_RESPONSE_ONLY; NO_LATER_EPISODE_CLAIM", "limit": "Failure is bounded to his recorded response; the warning’s private purpose, every unseen action and preventability of Patt’s exit remain unknown.", "qualifying_episode_use": true, "counting_unit": "ONE_BOUNDED_EVENT_RESPONSE; NOT_A_PLAYER_SCORE", "occurrence_confidence": "SUPPORTED_TEXT_RECORD_WITH_DECLARED_ATTRIBUTION_LIMITS", "actor_intent_confidence": "STATED_WHERE_AVAILABLE; OTHERWISE_BOUNDED_INFERENCE_OR_UNKNOWN", "recipient_effect_confidence": "ONLY_THE_RESPONSE_NAMED_HERE", "group_contribution_confidence": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_MOTIVE_OR_SOLE_CONTROL", "conversion_status": "NO_LATER_CONVERSION_ASSUMED" }, { "id": "IP06", "base": "Informational", "actors": [ "Carter" ], "recipients": [ "Brady" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-021" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "resource": "Knowledge of the visitor advantage opportunity", "action": "Minimizes/denies the additional opportunity", "observed_response": "Brady explicitly says he recognizes the deception", "power_state": "POWER_ATTEMPT", "effectiveness": "FAILED", "attribution": "CONTRADICTED", "magnitude": "Failure to create the stated false impression in Brady", "durability": "CURRENT_EPISODE_RESPONSE_ONLY; NO_LATER_EPISODE_CLAIM", "limit": "This is failed concealment at one recipient; it does not prove the idol was publicly known or that Carter’s whole visit failed.", "qualifying_episode_use": true, "counting_unit": "ONE_BOUNDED_EVENT_RESPONSE; NOT_A_PLAYER_SCORE", "occurrence_confidence": "SUPPORTED_TEXT_RECORD_WITH_DECLARED_ATTRIBUTION_LIMITS", "actor_intent_confidence": "STATED_WHERE_AVAILABLE; OTHERWISE_BOUNDED_INFERENCE_OR_UNKNOWN", "recipient_effect_confidence": "ONLY_THE_RESPONSE_NAMED_HERE", "group_contribution_confidence": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_MOTIVE_OR_SOLE_CONTROL", "conversion_status": "NO_LATER_CONVERSION_ASSUMED" }, { "id": "RP01", "base": "Reward", "actors": [ "Brady" ], "recipients": [ "Maggie" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-019", "EVD-S51E03-020" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "resource": "The extra vote he can hand over", "action": "Conditions the transfer on alignment and gives it to her", "observed_response": "Maggie makes the requested verbal promise", "power_state": "POWER_ATTEMPT", "effectiveness": "INDETERMINATE", "attribution": "SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "magnitude": "A verbal agreement obtained; ballot compliance unverified", "durability": "CURRENT_EPISODE_RESPONSE_ONLY; NO_LATER_EPISODE_CLAIM", "limit": "Actual receipt of the resource is supported. Count the real conditional-benefit attempt once; do not count an additional reverse bargain or claim a purchased/compliant vote.", "qualifying_episode_use": true, "counting_unit": "ONE_BOUNDED_EVENT_RESPONSE; NOT_A_PLAYER_SCORE", "occurrence_confidence": "SUPPORTED_TEXT_RECORD_WITH_DECLARED_ATTRIBUTION_LIMITS", "actor_intent_confidence": "STATED_WHERE_AVAILABLE; OTHERWISE_BOUNDED_INFERENCE_OR_UNKNOWN", "recipient_effect_confidence": "ONLY_THE_RESPONSE_NAMED_HERE", "group_contribution_confidence": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_MOTIVE_OR_SOLE_CONTROL", "conversion_status": "NO_LATER_CONVERSION_ASSUMED" }, { "id": "REF01", "base": "Referent", "actors": [ "Carter" ], "recipients": [ "Brady" ], "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-021", "EVD-S51E03-032", "EVD-S51E03-041" ], "layer": "EPISODE_RECORD", "resource": "Shared farm/football identity as perceived by Brady", "action": "Carter’s presence and conversation elicit Brady’s stated identification", "observed_response": "Brady explicitly wants to work with Carter and gives an alliance assurance", "power_state": "DEMONSTRATED_POWER", "effectiveness": "WORKED", "attribution": "STRONGLY_SUPPORTED_CONTRIBUTION", "magnitude": "Brady’s immediate decision to offer support", "durability": "CURRENT_EPISODE_RESPONSE_ONLY; NO_LATER_EPISODE_CLAIM", "limit": "The response is an offer, not actual protection or reciprocal loyalty. Strategic usefulness and physical ability also matter; Carter’s reported Patt vote prevents extending this into Brady controlling Carter.", "qualifying_episode_use": true, "counting_unit": "ONE_BOUNDED_EVENT_RESPONSE; NOT_A_PLAYER_SCORE", "occurrence_confidence": "SUPPORTED_TEXT_RECORD_WITH_DECLARED_ATTRIBUTION_LIMITS", "actor_intent_confidence": "STATED_WHERE_AVAILABLE; OTHERWISE_BOUNDED_INFERENCE_OR_UNKNOWN", "recipient_effect_confidence": "ONLY_THE_RESPONSE_NAMED_HERE", "group_contribution_confidence": "NO_WHOLE_GROUP_MOTIVE_OR_SOLE_CONTROL", "conversion_status": "NO_LATER_CONVERSION_ASSUMED" } ], "six_base_scans": [ { "unit_id": "T01", "base": "Legitimate", "rationale": "Reported idol access with unconfirmed use/expiry terms, and formal voluntary departure; no deliberate strategic rule deployment established." }, { "unit_id": "T01", "base": "Reward", "rationale": "Idol gift valued by Carter, but no induced action shown." }, { "unit_id": "T01", "base": "Coercive", "rationale": "Suspicion/criticism does not show a consequence changing Rob’s choice." }, { "unit_id": "T01", "base": "Expert", "rationale": "Medical expertise is formal context; no player Expert effect." }, { "unit_id": "T01", "base": "Referent", "rationale": "Rob’s alliance matters to Carter, but gift/affection alone does not establish a changed decision." }, { "unit_id": "T01", "base": "Informational", "rationale": "Eric/Ori state distrust, but no supported player-induced downstream change assigned." }, { "unit_id": "T02", "base": "Legitimate", "rationale": "No rule-based player control in the relay." }, { "unit_id": "T02", "base": "Reward", "rationale": "No conditional benefit used in the relay." }, { "unit_id": "T02", "base": "Coercive", "rationale": "Insult and targeting are not a demonstrated threat mechanism." }, { "unit_id": "T02", "base": "Expert", "rationale": "No deference to expertise shown." }, { "unit_id": "T02", "base": "Referent", "rationale": "Kilby’s intended bonding and claimed hold on Brady are insufficient/contradicted." }, { "unit_id": "T02", "base": "Informational", "rationale": "IP01: Patt’s relay changes Brady’s stated interpretation; broader plan has other causes." }, { "unit_id": "T03", "base": "Legitimate", "rationale": "Devin holds an extra vote; acquisition is distinct from deployment." }, { "unit_id": "T03", "base": "Reward", "rationale": "Cooperation produces a resource, but no conditional benefit controlling an ally is shown." }, { "unit_id": "T03", "base": "Coercive", "rationale": "Reputation warnings do not establish an imposed/threatened loss changing Savu behavior." }, { "unit_id": "T03", "base": "Expert", "rationale": "Sharonda helps retrieval; acknowledged help alone is not deference to recognized expertise." }, { "unit_id": "T03", "base": "Referent", "rationale": "Prior ties explain selective contact; Ori → Devin disclosure motivation remains possible rather than a separately counted relationship-induced change." }, { "unit_id": "T03", "base": "Informational", "rationale": "IP03: Ori directly attributes alliance reassurance to Devin’s disclosure; other recipients’ beliefs about Kilby remain unestablished." }, { "unit_id": "T04", "base": "Legitimate", "rationale": "Maggie holds a rule-created extra vote after transfer; no cast extra ballot established." }, { "unit_id": "T04", "base": "Reward", "rationale": "RP01: real conditional-transfer attempt obtains a promise; compliance unverified." }, { "unit_id": "T04", "base": "Coercive", "rationale": "Possible imposed obstruction of Carter’s retrieval, but exact agency/intent and effect beyond missing oars are incomplete; no qualifying Coercive control finding." }, { "unit_id": "T04", "base": "Expert", "rationale": "Brady’s physical help opening the oar is not automatic expertise-based deference." }, { "unit_id": "T04", "base": "Referent", "rationale": "Working together and an exchange promise do not establish relational loyalty." }, { "unit_id": "T04", "base": "Informational", "rationale": "IP02: location disclosure changes the search; count one group event, not every recipient separately." }, { "unit_id": "T05", "base": "Legitimate", "rationale": "Mutiny option resolves into membership; deliberate tactical deployment not established by the missed departure." }, { "unit_id": "T05", "base": "Reward", "rationale": "Brady’s assurance of support is not a separately demonstrated benefit-induced response by Carter." }, { "unit_id": "T05", "base": "Coercive", "rationale": "Missing oars affect Carter’s search; no demonstrated coercive group control over his decision to remain." }, { "unit_id": "T05", "base": "Expert", "rationale": "Recognizing concealment or valuing physical hands is not deference to expertise." }, { "unit_id": "T05", "base": "Referent", "rationale": "REF01: Brady links shared identity with his alliance offer; Carter’s reciprocal commitment is unproven." }, { "unit_id": "T05", "base": "Informational", "rationale": "IP06: concealment is recognized and fails to create the claimed impression." }, { "unit_id": "T06", "base": "Legitimate", "rationale": "Savu’s immunity is formal safety; host rules are not player Legitimate use." }, { "unit_id": "T06", "base": "Reward", "rationale": "Four hens are a game reward; no player deploys them to influence another." }, { "unit_id": "T06", "base": "Coercive", "rationale": "The sit-out dispute has contested accounts; do not establish Devin’s coercive control from Kilby’s allegation." }, { "unit_id": "T06", "base": "Expert", "rationale": "Puzzle performance and Kilby’s hypothetical superiority lack recipient deference." }, { "unit_id": "T06", "base": "Referent", "rationale": "Comfort and frustration do not demonstrate a relationship-linked decision shift." }, { "unit_id": "T06", "base": "Informational", "rationale": "Devin and Kilby offer competing explanations; no additional persuasion effect allocated from incomplete recipient identification." }, { "unit_id": "T07", "base": "Legitimate", "rationale": "An alliance label does not create recognized procedural authority." }, { "unit_id": "T07", "base": "Reward", "rationale": "Promises of future group membership do not show an additional conditional benefit effect here." }, { "unit_id": "T07", "base": "Coercive", "rationale": "Fear of becoming a target is strategic context, not proof of an actor’s credible threat securing compliance." }, { "unit_id": "T07", "base": "Expert", "rationale": "No competence-based deference shown." }, { "unit_id": "T07", "base": "Referent", "rationale": "Personal preferences shape targeting; no complete directional relational effect or durable loyalty established." }, { "unit_id": "T07", "base": "Informational", "rationale": "Countertarget/commitment discussion is context for IP04; no separate count for each conversation." }, { "unit_id": "T08", "base": "Legitimate", "rationale": "Adopting a target is not procedural Legitimate Power." }, { "unit_id": "T08", "base": "Reward", "rationale": "No exchanged benefit shown in the targeting argument." }, { "unit_id": "T08", "base": "Coercive", "rationale": "Patt’s perceived future danger is not a coercive threat she deploys." }, { "unit_id": "T08", "base": "Expert", "rationale": "Agreeing with an argument is not automatically deference to expertise." }, { "unit_id": "T08", "base": "Referent", "rationale": "Thien An’s assessment of Patt’s charm is perceived future capacity, not demonstrated Referent influence by Patt." }, { "unit_id": "T08", "base": "Informational", "rationale": "IP04: argument, observed agreement and consistent formal result support bounded group contribution." }, { "unit_id": "T09", "base": "Legitimate", "rationale": "Brady’s perceived leadership is not formal decision authority." }, { "unit_id": "T09", "base": "Reward", "rationale": "No exchanged benefit in the warning." }, { "unit_id": "T09", "base": "Coercive", "rationale": "No threat demanding a response shown." }, { "unit_id": "T09", "base": "Expert", "rationale": "Dismissing Thien An’s influence does not prove she lacks expertise or broader influence." }, { "unit_id": "T09", "base": "Referent", "rationale": "Neither warning nor dismissal establishes relational obligation." }, { "unit_id": "T09", "base": "Informational", "rationale": "IP05: warning is received but meets explicit resistance; hearing information is not converting it into action." }, { "unit_id": "T10", "base": "Legitimate", "rationale": "The vote result and survival are formal outcomes, not automatic player procedural uses." }, { "unit_id": "T10", "base": "Reward", "rationale": "No new supported resource-for-vote bargain." }, { "unit_id": "T10", "base": "Coercive", "rationale": "Risk of a future target is an alternative consideration, not demonstrated coercive control." }, { "unit_id": "T10", "base": "Expert", "rationale": "Successful coalition arithmetic is not expertise-based deference." }, { "unit_id": "T10", "base": "Referent", "rationale": "Carter/Lewis coordinate; a directional relationship-caused choice between them is not established." }, { "unit_id": "T10", "base": "Informational", "rationale": "Their shared assessment and choice support the causal explanation; do not duplicate IP04’s target-plan count." } ], "later_assessments": [ { "id": "L01", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-043" ], "source": "Patt, October 8 Q&A", "effect": "RETROSPECTIVE_EXPANSION", "finding": "Patt says Brady did not pass on the warning. This supplies her own later recollection; the Episode only supports that no relay is shown.", "limit": "Her credit to Thien An and judgment that Brady made a mistake are later assessments, not independent proof of either player’s entire private reasoning." }, { "id": "L02", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-044" ], "source": "Patt, October 8 Q&A", "effect": "RETROSPECTIVE_EXPANSION", "finding": "Patt says she expected Mike or Kilby, heard Kilby indicate Mike, and wanted to retain her ballot rather than try Shot in the Dark.", "limit": "Her own knowledge/choice account can explain her lack of a defensive attempt. Do not add the unseen Kilby exchange to the Episode or claim Shot in the Dark would have saved her." }, { "id": "L03", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-045" ], "source": "Patt, October 8 Q&A", "effect": "RETROSPECTIVE_EXPANSION", "finding": "Patt says she saved the controller remark and used it when Brady became concerned about her. This adds her tactical intent to the already observed relay and response.", "limit": "Her attribution does not replace Brady’s own stated response or prove the complete cause of his plan. No duplicate Power-use count is added." }, { "id": "L04", "evidence_ids": [ "EVD-S51E03-046", "EVD-S51E03-047" ], "source": "Rob, October 8 Q&A", "effect": "RETROSPECTIVE_INDETERMINATE", "finding": "Rob attributes his exit and earlier self-vote attempt to unreported symptoms and concern about infection. This contests the other players’ private-motive theory without resolving it.", "limit": "No clinical confirmation obtained, no conversion to medical evacuation and no silent rewrite of Episode 2’s accepted package. No new effect/count from the retelling." } ], "player_coverage": [ { "player": "Patt", "assessment": "Central subject: remark relay, perceived target risk, public trust statement, exit words and separate later knowledge/intent account.", "turn_ids": [ "T02", "T08", "T09", "T10" ] }, { "player": "Brady", "assessment": "Receives Patt’s information, bargains with Maggie, welcomes Carter, claims numbers and resists Thien An’s warning.", "turn_ids": [ "T02", "T04", "T05", "T07", "T09" ] }, { "player": "Thien An", "assessment": "Patt-versus-Mike framing and group agreement supported; her warning meets resistance. No sole-control verdict.", "turn_ids": [ "T08", "T09" ] }, { "player": "Carter", "assessment": "Idol receipt, visiting/withholding, received assurance, missed boat, choice criteria and official reported Patt vote.", "turn_ids": [ "T01", "T05", "T07", "T10" ] }, { "player": "Lewis", "assessment": "Late arrival/outsider account, reported bag search, coalition arithmetic, joint options and official reported Patt vote.", "turn_ids": [ "T04", "T07", "T10" ] }, { "player": "Maggie", "assessment": "Retrieval, request, promised alignment and extra-vote access; exact ballot use/compliance unresolved.", "turn_ids": [ "T04", "T07" ] }, { "player": "Devin", "assessment": "Cross-tribe disclosure and advantage acquisition; local conflict and target intention do not establish all-group compliance.", "turn_ids": [ "T03", "T06", "T07", "T10" ] }, { "player": "Kilby", "assessment": "Intended bonding/backfire, contested sit-out account, assumed Brady tie and survival without a control claim.", "turn_ids": [ "T02", "T06", "T07", "T10" ] }, { "player": "Sharonda", "assessment": "Prior relationship conversation and concrete retrieval help; no automatic Expert/Referent or whole-Savu effect.", "turn_ids": [ "T03" ] }, { "player": "Ori", "assessment": "Explicit reassurance from Devin’s disclosure; own Rob skepticism and challenge context. No future protection/vote inference.", "turn_ids": [ "T01", "T03", "T06" ] }, { "player": "Jelly", "assessment": "Part of the named five and public big-move discussion; prior idol access retained by reference, no new confirmed deployment.", "turn_ids": [ "T07", "T10" ] }, { "player": "Jenna", "assessment": "Named faction participant and public uncertainty; puzzle role does not establish Expert deference.", "turn_ids": [ "T06", "T07", "T10" ] }, { "player": "Mike", "assessment": "Named member of five and initial countertarget; others’ assessment is not his own motive or a low-Power score.", "turn_ids": [ "T07", "T08" ] }, { "player": "Rob", "assessment": "Own exit/health account, conflicting recipient opinions, formal voluntary departure and reported gift; later self-report separate.", "turn_ids": [ "T01" ] }, { "player": "Eric", "assessment": "Own success account and skepticism toward Rob; no new broad control finding.", "turn_ids": [ "T01" ] }, { "player": "Kristin", "assessment": "Own health comparison and tribe/challenge context; no diagnosis of Rob or new social-Power effect.", "turn_ids": [ "T01", "T06" ] }, { "player": "Alexis", "assessment": "Challenge/formal-safe context only in the scoped record; no new assessed social effect.", "turn_ids": [ "T06" ] }, { "player": "Cristian", "assessment": "Challenge/formal-safe context only in the scoped record; no new assessed social effect.", "turn_ids": [ "T06" ] }, { "player": "Linnea", "assessment": "Named as a leader in Carter’s account, not independently shown controlling Savu; formal-safe context.", "turn_ids": [ "T04", "T06" ] }, { "player": "Ana", "assessment": "Earlier elimination remains accepted history; new Ori/Rob accounts are not silent repairs to Episode 2.", "turn_ids": [ "T01" ] }, { "player": "Aaliyah", "assessment": "Earlier elimination remains accepted history; no new Episode 3 assessment.", "turn_ids": [ "T03" ] } ], "inherited_issues": [ { "issue_id": "ISS01", "scope": "SOURCE_CLOCK", "status": "LIMIT", "detail": "First working official-cut and caption availability not observed. Publisher availability/publication fields differ. Collection was before even broadcast-end +48 hours; do not reset T+0 to collection.", "dependent_claim": "Exact first-availability/timeliness anchor" }, { "issue_id": "ISS02", "scope": "VISUAL_MODALITY", "status": "LIMIT", "detail": "Caption review complete; audiovisual review bounded to spot checks. No visual-only/nonverbal motive, whisper text or ballots admitted.", "dependent_claim": "Any claim requiring unreviewed visual detail" }, { "issue_id": "ISS03", "scope": "SPEAKER_AND_CONTEXT", "status": "LIMIT", "detail": "Some caption turns do not identify speaker or interview camera context. Keep unresolved identities and CONTEXT_INDETERMINATE; recaps corroborate named attribution but add no hidden words.", "dependent_claim": "Precise individual attribution in unresolved turns" }, { "issue_id": "ISS04", "scope": "BALLOT_MAP", "status": "LIMIT", "detail": "6–5 final tally corroborated; no complete direct voter ledger. Carter/Lewis voting Patt is official reporting, not a visually verified ballot. Do not infer all motives, vote capacity or extra-vote nonuse.", "dependent_claim": "Full named voter map, individual vote counts, extra-vote deployment" }, { "issue_id": "ISS05", "scope": "ORDINAL", "status": "CONFLICT_PRESERVED", "detail": "Episode caption/host calls Patt the fourth person voted out; official recap says third voted out/fourth departure. Rob left voluntarily. Use the named result and distinguish departures from vote eliminations.", "dependent_claim": "Exact exit-type ordinal" }, { "issue_id": "ISS06", "scope": "ROB_HEALTH_AND_MOTIVE", "status": "DISPUTED_ATTRIBUTION", "detail": "The Episode medical check does not pull Rob. Players suspect an easy exit; Rob later attributes it to unreported symptoms. Neither opinion establishes a diagnosis or fabrication.", "dependent_claim": "True medical cause or sole private motive" }, { "issue_id": "ISS07", "scope": "EARLIER_EPISODE", "status": "PROTECTED", "detail": "Ori and Rob discuss Episode 2 in the new record. Prior 6–4/5–4 conflict, voter-map limits, and accepted packages remain unchanged.", "dependent_claim": "Retrospective repair of Episode 2" }, { "issue_id": "ISS08", "scope": "GOVERNANCE_AVAILABILITY", "status": "DISCLOSED", "detail": "Technical Record v104 absent at indexed path; current workflow, Survivor v1.5 and runbook v0.9 inspected. No claim to inspect absent text.", "dependent_claim": "Assertions about absent v104 contents" } ], "numeric_player_scores": [], "ranks": [], "probabilities": [], "predictions": [], "counting_notes": "Six Informational event/response records (two resisted attempts), one conditional Reward attempt, and one bounded Referent response. All eight records count distinct uses/attempts, not scores. No additional count for later interviews, ownership, formal safety, inferred ballots, repeated dialogue or a reciprocal version of the same bargain. Phase 3 may use the checked records when authorized; no homepage data changed.", "phase3_handoff": { "question_public_wording": "Review with complete page; no separate pre-analysis or pre-page sign-off", "later_layer_placement": "Put a material, visibly dated later addendum before the original Episode report; keep its question and knowledge separate.", "story_spine": [ "The five’s limits in a tribe of eleven", "Patt’s remark relay and Brady’s focus on Kilby", "Visitor resources and Carter’s new membership", "Thien An’s specific Patt argument", "Brady receives but dismisses the warning", "Carter/Lewis choices and the supported tally", "Clearly dated Patt/Rob later accounts" ], "mandatory_limits": [ "Single-recipient effects versus group contribution", "Promise versus actual ballot", "Offer versus actual protection", "Access versus deployment", "Separate later wave", "No unverified voter map or diagnosis", "No score/rank/forecast", "No Episode 2 rewrite" ] }, "acceptance": "NO_NEW_JAMES_REVIEW_DECISION_RECORDED; PHASE_2_CHECKED_WORK_IS_NOT_PAGE_ACCEPTANCE", "website_changes": [], "publication": "NOT_REQUESTED_NOT_STARTED" }